Steelers @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs - originally scheduled on Jan. 14, 2023)

Mon, Jan 15, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs - originally scheduled on Jan. 14 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff15°F7 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-7 · Power #19

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

11-6 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -10

✓ BUF W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 18–28 BUF

✓ BUF (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -10

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -10

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 10-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 10; 43.2 points a game (usually 46.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LV 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-11	14–20	L	U40.5
Very close	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & season form	-11	27–16	P	O39
Very close	BAL vs DEN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-9	10–9	L	U40.5
Very close	SF vs SEA 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & situation	-9	41–23	W	O42
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-8.5	32–6	W	U39
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	34–10	W	O40.5
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	20–12	L	U43
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-11	21–32	L	O43
Close	TB vs CAR 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & rest	-11	41–17	W	O43
Close	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-8.5	14–33	L	O40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LLWWW	8-5	62%	5-2	4-3
BUF WWLLW	6-8	43%	3-4	5-6

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OOOOU	5-7-1	42%	10-7
BUF UUOOU	4-8	33%	11-6

Went over in Q4. Of 45 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%
BUF	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 7–6 BUF PIT leads · 13 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−0.6▲ 7.3#18

BUF−1.0 →+4.5▲ 5.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

PIT

Longer bar = better

BUF

#23

Offense

BUF better ▶

#12

Defense

BUF better ▶

+0.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.1 #14

61 plays #26

Pace

BUF faster ▶

66 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	PIT off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #28	18.3 #4	BUF
Yards / play	5.03 #22	5.14 #10	BUF
EPA / play	−0.07 #23	−0.07 #8	BUF
Success rate	42% #17	42% #12	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #6	19.1 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #5	5.42 #23	BUF
EPA / play	+0.11 #2	−0.06 #10	BUF
Success rate	49% #2	41% #9	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.6 #22	5.2 #27	8.8 #28	3.9 #23	5.2 #23	9.1 #24
BUF allowed	4.2 #18	5.4 #4	9.6 #8	1.7 #1	6.2 #18	7.9 #5

BUF scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.5 #15	9.1 #4	13.6 #7	4.8 #11	7.9 #3	12.7 #6
PIT allowed	4.1 #16	7.3 #19	11.4 #17	4.2 #11	3.5 #1	7.6 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.