Chiefs @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Divisional Playoffs, 2023)

Sun, Jan 21, 2024, 6:30 PM ESTAFC Divisional Playoffs · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff23°F10 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

12-6 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo Bills

12-6 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

✓ KC W

Total

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 21–24 BUF

✗ BUF (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -2.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -2.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 2.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3; 50.6 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs LAR 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	27–30	L	O48
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	24–27	L	O47
Very close	SF vs DAL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	19–12	W	U46.5
Very close	PHI vs SF 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	31–7	W	U44.5
Very close	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	23–20	W	U48.5
Very close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–22	L	U48
Very close	TB vs LAR 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4	24–27	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC PLWWW	7-5-1	58%	2-2-1	2-0
BUF WLLWW	7-8	47%	4-4	6-6

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUUUU	4-9	31%	12-6
BUF UOOUO	5-8	38%	12-6

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 43–49, 17% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KC 11–12 BUF BUF leads · 23 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Buffalo Bills 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17	KC -2	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC−1.7 →+3.9▲ 5.6#5

BUF−1.0 →+4.6▲ 5.6#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

Longer bar = better

BUF

#12

Offense

BUF better ▶

Defense

◀ KC better

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+0.2 #11

64 plays #13

Pace

BUF faster ▶

66 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #15	18.2 #4	BUF
Yards / play	5.52 #9	5.14 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #10	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	43% #12	42% #12	Even

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #6	16.7 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.70 #5	4.70 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.11 #2	−0.09 #5	Even
Success rate	49% #2	39% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.7 #14	9.7 #2	14.4 #6	4.1 #22	3.6 #32	7.7 #28
BUF allowed	4.0 #15	5.5 #5	9.5 #8	1.8 #1	6.3 #17	8.1 #5

BUF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.1 #9	9.0 #4	14.1 #7	4.7 #11	7.9 #4	12.6 #6
KC allowed	3.0 #3	6.7 #14	9.7 #10	3.1 #5	3.9 #3	7.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.