Chiefs @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Championship, 2023)

Sun, Jan 28, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTAFC Championship · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff44°F8 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

13-6 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

14-4 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

✓ KC W

Total

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 20–24 BAL

✗ BAL (65%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -4.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -4.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 17–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 44, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 4.5; 42.7 points a game (usually 45.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs NE 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	47–17	W	O43
Very close	SF vs DAL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	19–12	W	U46.5
Very close	LAR vs NE 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	24–3	W	U43.5
Very close	PHI vs TEN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Very close	SF vs MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	33–17	W	O45.5
Very close	PHI vs NO 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	10–20	L	U41.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	BAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	37–3	W	U44
Close	TB vs LAR 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–27	L	O47.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-4	24–28	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LWWWW	8-5-1	62%	3-2-1	3-0
BAL WWWLW	9-4	69%	5-3	8-3

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UUUUO	5-9	36%	13-6
BAL UOOUP	7-5-1	58%	14-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 46% of games with totals 41–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%
BAL	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 10–5 BAL KC leads · 15 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC−1.7 →+4.0▲ 5.7#5

BAL+2.2 →+6.5▲ 4.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotDIV

Longer bar = better

BAL

#11

Offense

BAL better ▶

Defense

Even

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.7 #3

63 plays #15

Pace

Even

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	KC off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #14	16.1 #1	BAL
Yards / play	5.61 #9	4.62 #2	BAL
EPA / play	+0.03 #10	−0.15 #2	BAL
Success rate	44% #12	40% #5	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #2	17.1 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #4	4.70 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #7	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	47% #4	40% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.6 #14	9.7 #2	14.3 #6	4.2 #21	3.8 #31	8.0 #27
BAL allowed	2.8 #2	4.4 #1	7.2 #1	2.2 #3	6.6 #22	8.8 #7

BAL scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.1 #4	9.0 #5	15.1 #4	5.9 #3	7.4 #6	13.3 #2
KC allowed	3.0 #3	7.1 #17	10.1 #10	3.3 #6	3.7 #3	7.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.