Browns @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Weather at kickoff37°F16 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

11-5 · Power #8

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

8-8 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -7

✓ CIN W

Total

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 18–24 CIN

✓ CIN (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -7

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -7

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 7-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 37, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 6.6; 41.5 points a game (usually 47.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs CIN 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	21–16	L	U38
Very close	DEN vs LAC 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–28	L	O39
Very close	NYJ vs CHI 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	31–10	W	O36.5
Close	NO vs CAR 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-7	18–10	W	U37
Close	DEN vs NE 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-7	23–26	L	O37.5
Close	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	34–14	W	O40
Close	ATL vs TB 2022 · Week 18 · close	-5.5	30–17	W	O40.5
Close	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	20–16	L	U40
Close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–10	W	P41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWWWW	8-3-1	73%	2-3-1	2-2-1
CIN WWPLL	5-5-1	50%	3-2-1	3-2-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUOO	9-3	75%	11-5
CIN OOOOU	7-4	64%	8-8

Went over in Q4. Of 27 earlier overs in games with totals 34–40, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%
CIN	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 22–32 CIN CIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 3 @ Cleveland Browns 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+3.3▼ 2.7#7

CIN−6.0 →−1.0▲ 5.0#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CLE

Longer bar = better

CIN

#24

Offense

CIN better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ CLE better

#29

−0.5 #27

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.6 #4

71 plays #1

Pace

◀ CLE faster

62 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: CLE offense

	CLE off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #9	23.1 #21	CLE
Yards / play	4.82 #28	6.11 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	+0.05 #30	Even
Success rate	39% #29	46% #31	Even

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	CIN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #20	20.7 #11	CLE
Yards / play	5.16 #17	4.52 #1	CLE
EPA / play	−0.01 #12	−0.20 #1	CLE
Success rate	44% #11	34% #1	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	4.6 #14	8.7 #6	13.3 #8	4.4 #17	6.2 #16	10.6 #18
CIN allowed	4.3 #18	8.2 #27	12.5 #23	5.3 #24	5.3 #8	10.6 #16

CIN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.4 #16	5.4 #24	9.8 #21	4.7 #12	6.1 #18	10.8 #16
CLE allowed	5.8 #30	4.8 #3	10.6 #14	3.4 #6	6.7 #21	10.1 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.