Patriots @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff25°F4 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

3-11 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Denver Broncos

7-7 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

DEN -7

✓ NE W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 19–26 DEN

✗ DEN (73%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -7

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDEN -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -7

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 7-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 37.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 6.9; 40.8 points a game (usually 47.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	29–3	W	U36.5
Very close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Very close	NO vs CAR 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	18–10	W	U37
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–14	W	O40
Very close	NYJ vs CHI 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–10	W	O36.5
Very close	WSH vs NYG 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	19–31	L	O39
Very close	NYG vs IND 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	38–10	W	O38.5
Very close	SEA vs CHI 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	24–25	L	O41
Very close	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	29–27	L	O40
Very close	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LLLWP	2-6-1	25%	1-3	2-4-1
DEN LWLWL	4-7	36%	2-4	1-4

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUUOO	4-5	44%	3-11
DEN UOUUO	2-8	20%	7-7

Went over in Q4. Of 26 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	2-6-1 25%	4-5 44%
DEN	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 13–10 DEN NE leads · 23 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE0.0 →−3.2▼ 3.2#28

DEN0.0 →−2.0▼ 2.0#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

DEN

#29

Offense

DEN better ▶

#18

#11

Defense

◀ NE better

#29

−0.6 #30

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.4 #9

61 plays #26

Pace

◀ NE faster

59 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	13.3 #32	25.1 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.68 #28	5.96 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	+0.03 #27	Even
Success rate	41% #24	45% #30	NE

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	DEN off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #17	21.4 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #20	4.82 #5	NE
EPA / play	−0.06 #19	−0.04 #15	Even
Success rate	42% #17	41% #8	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.4 #31	4.9 #26	7.2 #29	1.9 #32	4.2 #30	6.1 #32
DEN allowed	3.2 #4	8.8 #28	12.0 #20	5.8 #28	7.3 #26	13.1 #29

DEN scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.1 #9	5.0 #25	10.1 #21	3.1 #27	8.5 #2	11.6 #12
NE allowed	4.7 #21	7.6 #23	12.3 #22	3.5 #8	5.6 #11	9.1 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.