Jaguars @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-8 · Power #29

final

Final

Detroit Lions

8-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -14.5

✓ DET W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 17–31 DET

✓ DET (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -13.5

CloseDET -14.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -13.5

1 → DET

CloseDET -14.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -13.5 · closed DET -14.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -15

model DET -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -13.5

CloseDET -14.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 14.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 52–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.4 against an average line of 14.3; 49 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	29–15	P	U46
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-13	45–10	W	O48
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Loose	SF vs SEA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-14	28–16	L	U45.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2021 · Week 8 · loose	-15	26–11	P	U48.5
Loose	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-13	27–24	L	O46
Loose	DAL vs HOU 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-17	27–23	L	O44.5
Loose	LAR vs DET 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-16.5	28–19	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWWW	6-4	60%	3-1	5-1
DET WWWWL	7-2	78%	3-1	6-2

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OOOOU	6-4	60%	2-8
DET OOOUU	4-5	44%	8-1

Went over in Q3. Of 74 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DET	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 2–5 DET DET leads · 7 games since 2004 · DET has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+0.2 →−3.5▼ 3.7#28

DET+1.6 →+4.7▲ 3.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

JAX

Longer bar = better

DET

#18

Offense

DET better ▶

#27

Defense

DET better ▶

#10

−0.7 #28

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.9 #4

56 plays #32

Pace

DET faster ▶

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	JAX off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #21	19.0 #8	DET
Yards / play	5.44 #15	5.48 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #17	−0.13 #2	DET
Success rate	41% #19	41% #10	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #2	26.4 #27	DET
Yards / play	6.03 #4	5.88 #31	DET
EPA / play	+0.11 #5	+0.13 #32	DET
Success rate	47% #9	44% #19	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.7 #27	6.4 #20	9.1 #22	6.1 #11	5.0 #22	11.1 #16
DET allowed	5.4 #27	4.4 #3	9.9 #9	4.4 #10	4.7 #7	9.1 #11

DET scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.2 #18	14.0 #1	18.2 #1	8.7 #1	4.0 #30	12.7 #8
JAX allowed	5.1 #24	8.6 #25	13.7 #27	3.6 #8	9.1 #30	12.7 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.