Steelers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Thu, Nov 21, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Weather at kickoff36°F14 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

8-2 · Power #12

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

2-8 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

✓ CLE W

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 21–17 CLE

✗ PIT (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -4.5

ClosePIT -3.5

Total40.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -4.5

1 → CLE

ClosePIT -3.5

1 pt toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open40.5

▼ 4

Close36.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -4.5 · closed PIT -3.5 · moved 1 toward CLEmodel PIT -3

model PIT -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 57% (71 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -4.5

ClosePIT -3.5

Total40.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 24–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 36.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 4; 39.9 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Loose	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & spread	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5
Loose	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Loose	HOU @ NYJ 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	6–30	L	O33.5
Loose	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4	30–20	W	O40
Loose	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · loose	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation	-3	11–34	L	O39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WWWWW	7-2	78%	3-1	3-2
CLE WLWLL	3-7	30%	1-4	3-3

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OOOOU	5-4	56%	8-2
CLE UUOUO	4-6	40%	2-8

Went over in Q4. Of 38 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–39.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PIT 42–14 CLE (1 tied) PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 10 @ Cleveland Browns 13	CLE -2.5	CLE W
Sep 18 2023	Cleveland Browns 22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.4 →+2.4▲ 2.8#9

CLE+1.1 →−3.2▼ 4.3#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PIT

Longer bar = better

CLE

#20

Offense

◀ PIT better

#31

Defense

◀ PIT better

#20

+1.1 #2

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.5 #25

65 plays #6

Pace

Even

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #15	24.8 #24	PIT
Yards / play	4.95 #24	5.76 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	+0.03 #20	PIT
Success rate	40% #24	41% #9	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CLE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #31	16.2 #2	PIT
Yards / play	4.44 #32	5.22 #10	PIT
EPA / play	−0.13 #28	−0.08 #7	PIT
Success rate	37% #32	42% #12	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.5 #22	5.4 #22	8.9 #22	6.6 #6	7.8 #7	14.4 #5
CLE allowed	4.2 #13	9.7 #27	13.9 #27	6.1 #28	4.8 #7	10.9 #16

CLE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.6 #21	3.1 #31	6.7 #32	3.5 #22	6.0 #20	9.5 #23
PIT allowed	5.1 #26	4.7 #4	9.8 #10	1.3 #1	5.1 #10	6.4 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.