Chargers @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

7-4 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

6-5 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

LAC -0.5

✓ LAC W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 23–23 ATL

✓ LAC (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -1.5

CloseLAC -0.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -1.5

1 → ATL

CloseLAC -0.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -1.5 · closed LAC -0.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel LAC -1.5

model LAC -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 60% (48 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 44% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -1.5

CloseLAC -0.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 0.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 17–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 41%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 2.2; 48.6 points a game (usually 42.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Loose	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & spread	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Loose	PHI @ TB 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & season form	-0.5	16–33	L	O43.5
Loose	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Loose	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & total	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWWWL	8-3	73%	3-2	7-1
ATL LWWLL	5-6	45%	2-4	1-2

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOOO	4-7	36%	7-4
ATL UOUUU	4-7	36%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 4–3 ATL LAC leads · 7 games since 2004 · LAC has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →+1.1▲ 1.8#12

ATL−0.8 →−1.0▼ 0.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LAC

Longer bar = better

ATL

#19

Offense

ATL better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ LAC better

#27

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.3 #21

60 plays #27

Pace

ATL faster ▶

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #18	24.9 #25	LAC
Yards / play	5.41 #16	5.59 #22	LAC
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	+0.07 #29	LAC
Success rate	40% #27	47% #30	Even

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #16	15.9 #1	LAC
Yards / play	5.85 #9	5.32 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.06 #7	LAC
Success rate	47% #6	40% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.5 #8	8.3 #10	13.7 #9	2.9 #29	5.5 #24	8.4 #30
ATL allowed	4.3 #18	10.8 #31	15.1 #31	4.3 #9	5.5 #12	9.8 #10

ATL scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.4 #14	8.7 #8	13.1 #10	4.7 #15	3.8 #31	8.5 #27
LAC allowed	1.7 #1	4.0 #2	5.7 #1	2.9 #4	7.3 #25	10.2 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.