Lions @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff50°F11 mphgusts 23Wet0.1 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Detroit Lions

6-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

6-2 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

DET -2.5

✓ DET W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 26–24 GB

✓ DET (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3.5

1 → GB

CloseDET -2.5

1 pt toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3.5 · closed DET -2.5 · moved 1 toward GBmodel DET -0.5

model DET -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (71 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 2.5-point road favorite at GB, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 24–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 2.9; 56.1 points a game (usually 44). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Loose	BUF @ MIA 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–14	W	U48
Loose	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Loose	DAL @ PHI 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	51–26	W	O45.5
Loose	SF @ PHI 2023 · Week 13 · loose	-3	42–19	W	O46.5
Loose	BUF @ BAL 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	23–20	P	U51

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	5-1
GB LWWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; GB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UOOOO	4-3	57%	6-1
GB OUOUO	5-3	63%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 50% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
GB	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DET 18–36 GB GB leads · 54 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2023	Green Bay Packers 29 @ Detroit Lions 22	DET -8.5	GB W
Sep 28 2023	Detroit Lions 34 @ Green Bay Packers 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+4.4▲ 2.8#2

GB+0.5 →+3.0▲ 2.5#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DET

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ DET better

#10

Defense

◀ DET better

#15

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #4

62 plays #19

Pace

GB faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #1	21.3 #12	DET
Yards / play	6.26 #4	5.36 #16	DET
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	−0.08 #6	Even
Success rate	48% #5	46% #27	DET

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	19.1 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.10 #5	5.56 #19	GB
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.14 #2	DET
Success rate	42% #16	41% #11	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	5.4 #10	14.6 #1	20.0 #1	9.3 #1	3.3 #31	12.6 #10
GB allowed	3.0 #5	10.0 #29	13.0 #24	4.3 #11	4.0 #4	8.3 #7

GB scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.9 #3	8.8 #8	14.6 #7	6.5 #10	5.9 #18	12.4 #12
DET allowed	5.1 #22	3.9 #4	9.0 #6	5.3 #17	4.9 #10	10.1 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.