Bengals @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

4-6 · Power #14

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

6-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -0.5

✓ LAC W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 23–24 LAC

✓ LAC (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -0.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

2 → CIN

CloseLAC -0.5

2 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open45.5

▲ 3

Close48.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · closed LAC -0.5 · moved 2 toward CINmodel LAC -2

model LAC -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -0.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 0.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 41%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 7.3 against an average line of 1.7; 50.1 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	WSH vs PIT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	27–28	L	O45.5
Close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Loose	CIN vs CLE 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1.5	16–41	L	O47.5
Loose	GB vs LAR 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-1	36–28	W	O46.5
Loose	DEN vs PHI 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-1	13–30	L	U44.5
Loose	CIN vs SF 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1	23–26	L	P49
Loose	LV vs PHI 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	33–22	W	O48.5
Loose	CAR vs PHI 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	18–21	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLWW	6-4	60%	5-0	2-1
LAC WLWWW	7-2	78%	4-0	6-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UUOOO	7-3	70%	4-6
LAC OUUUO	2-7	22%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 61 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
LAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 5–10 LAC LAC leads · 15 games since 1999 · LAC has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−0.2–#17

LAC−0.7 →+1.5▲ 2.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CIN

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ CIN better

#20

#24

Defense

LAC better ▶

0.0 #15

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+1.0 #3

61 plays #25

Pace

Even

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	13.1 #1	LAC
Yards / play	5.69 #11	5.12 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.13 #3	LAC
Success rate	46% #12	40% #5	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #21	26.2 #26	LAC
Yards / play	5.31 #17	5.31 #13	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	+0.07 #27	LAC
Success rate	39% #28	47% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.2 #10	7.0 #15	12.2 #15	8.2 #2	6.6 #11	14.8 #4
LAC allowed	1.8 #1	3.0 #1	4.8 #1	1.7 #2	6.7 #22	8.3 #8

LAC scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.1 #11	7.6 #11	12.7 #12	2.9 #29	5.1 #24	8.0 #30
CIN allowed	2.4 #4	7.8 #23	10.2 #12	5.9 #25	9.8 #31	15.7 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.