Colts @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff60°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

7-8 · Power #21

final

Final

New York Giants

2-13 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -7.5

✓ NYG W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 25–18 NYG

✗ IND (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -8

CloseIND -7.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -8

0.5 → NYG

CloseIND -7.5

0.5 pts toward New York Giants

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -8 · closed IND -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward NYGmodel IND -3.5

model IND -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 45% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -8

CloseIND -7.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 7.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYG won 45–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 6.1; 41.6 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Very close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Very close	HOU @ DAL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	NO @ CAR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	22–23	L	O43.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLLLW	9-6	60%	4-4	3-2
NYG LLWLL	4-11	27%	2-6	4-9

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUOOO	8-7	53%	7-8
NYG UOUOU	5-10	33%	2-13

Went over in Q3. Of 104 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NYG	0-10 0%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 5–3 NYG IND leads · 8 games since 1999 · NYG has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−1.5▼ 0.9#21

NYG−2.2 →−5.5▼ 3.3#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

IND

Longer bar = better

NYG

#22

Offense

◀ IND better

#30

#17

Defense

◀ IND better

#27

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.7 #28

59 plays #28

Pace

NYG faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #21	24.1 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #14	5.66 #25	IND
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	+0.07 #29	IND
Success rate	39% #30	46% #29	Even

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	NYG off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #32	23.9 #23	IND
Yards / play	4.59 #31	5.48 #18	IND
EPA / play	−0.13 #30	−0.02 #11	IND
Success rate	41% #26	43% #14	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.5 #15	5.7 #23	10.3 #20	3.1 #28	7.9 #6	10.9 #13
NYG allowed	5.5 #27	7.6 #22	13.1 #26	6.8 #31	4.1 #2	10.9 #16

NYG scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	1.9 #30	4.8 #29	6.7 #31	2.2 #32	5.4 #26	7.6 #32
IND allowed	3.7 #7	6.0 #10	9.7 #9	5.0 #17	9.2 #31	14.2 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.