Cardinals @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Los Angeles Rams · Division game

Weather at kickoff59°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

7-8 · Power #17

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

9-6 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -6.5

✓ ARI W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 21–27 LAR

✓ LAR (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -5.5

CloseLAR -6.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -5.5

1 → LAR

CloseLAR -6.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -5.5 · closed LAR -6.5 · moved 1 toward LARmodel LAR -2

model LAR -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -5.5

CloseLAR -6.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 6.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 13–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 22 points stayed under 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 5.8; 51.4 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Very close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI LWLWL	9-6	60%	4-3	6-2
LAR LWWWW	8-7	53%	3-4	4-2

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UUOOO	8-7	53%	7-8
LAR OUOUU	7-8	47%	9-6

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 49% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
LAR	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ARI 21–29 LAR LAR leads · 50 games since 2002 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2024	Los Angeles Rams 10 @ Arizona Cardinals 41	ARI -1.5	ARI W
Nov 26 2023	Los Angeles Rams 37 @ Arizona Cardinals 14	LAR -3	LAR W
Oct 15 2023	Arizona Cardinals 9 @ Los Angeles Rams 26	LAR -7.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.7 →−0.3▲ 1.4#18

LAR+0.7 →+0.1▼ 0.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ARI

Longer bar = better

LAR

#10

Offense

◀ ARI better

#13

#24

Defense

Even

#23

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

+0.3 #12

60 plays #25

Pace

LAR faster ▶

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #13	23.1 #18	ARI
Yards / play	5.89 #7	5.67 #26	ARI
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	+0.04 #25	ARI
Success rate	47% #10	45% #22	ARI

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #16	22.8 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #15	5.59 #24	LAR
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	+0.06 #27	LAR
Success rate	47% #8	48% #31	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.5 #8	7.1 #17	12.6 #12	4.5 #16	5.8 #22	10.3 #21
LAR allowed	5.7 #30	5.4 #7	11.1 #15	5.7 #26	6.0 #15	11.7 #19

LAR scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.8 #31	6.4 #20	8.2 #26	5.9 #9	7.4 #9	13.3 #8
ARI allowed	4.7 #22	8.0 #24	12.7 #22	4.5 #13	5.2 #8	9.7 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.