Rams @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff17°F8 mphgusts 19DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

8-6 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

4-10 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

LAR -2.5

✓ LAR W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 23–21 NYJ

✓ LAR (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3

CloseLAR -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -3

0.5 → NYJ

CloseLAR -2.5

0.5 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -3 · closed LAR -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward NYJmodel LAR -2

model LAR -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (88 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAR -3

CloseLAR -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 2.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 19–9; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 3; 38.4 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLWWW	7-7	50%	4-3	3-2
NYJ LLLWW	5-9	36%	2-4	1-3

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OOUOU	7-7	50%	8-6
NYJ UOOOO	8-6	57%	4-10

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 50% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NYJ	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 4–3 NYJ LAR leads · 7 games since 2001 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.7 →0.0▼ 0.7#17

NYJ−1.2 →−1.7▼ 0.5#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

LAR

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#13

Offense

◀ LAR better

#19

#24

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#13

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

−0.1 #17

62 plays #15

Pace

◀ LAR faster

59 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #17	23.2 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #13	4.97 #4	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	+0.02 #21	LAR
Success rate	47% #7	43% #10	Even

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #22	24.1 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.19 #19	5.71 #27	NYJ
EPA / play	0.00 #15	+0.04 #24	NYJ
Success rate	42% #18	44% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.9 #30	6.4 #18	8.4 #26	6.4 #8	7.0 #11	13.4 #8
NYJ allowed	4.8 #20	7.6 #22	12.4 #21	4.1 #5	6.3 #15	10.4 #10

NYJ scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.6 #16	5.4 #22	10.0 #20	4.9 #14	5.3 #27	10.2 #19
LAR allowed	5.6 #27	5.6 #9	11.2 #14	6.1 #28	6.4 #18	12.5 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.