Titans @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

3-11 · Power #26

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

6-8 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -4.5

✓ IND W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 20–25 IND

✓ IND (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -4

CloseIND -4.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -4

0.5 → IND

CloseIND -4.5

0.5 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -4 · closed IND -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward INDmodel IND -2.5

model IND -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 54% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -4

CloseIND -4.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 4.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 38–30; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 4.3; 43.6 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	DAL vs NYG 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–20	W	O39.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LWLLL	2-12	14%	2-5	2-8
IND LWLLL	8-6	57%	4-2	2-2

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOOUO	8-6	57%	3-11
IND OOUOO	7-7	50%	6-8

Went over in Q3. Of 124 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
IND	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TEN 16–34 IND IND leads · 50 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2024	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Tennessee Titans 17	TEN -2.5	IND W
Dec 3 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Tennessee Titans 28	IND -1	IND W
Oct 8 2023	Tennessee Titans 16 @ Indianapolis Colts 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−3.2▼ 1.7#26

IND−0.6 →−1.7▼ 1.1#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

TEN

Longer bar = better

IND

#28

Offense

IND better ▶

#25

#15

Defense

Even

#15

−0.9 #30

Turnovers

IND better ▶

−0.3 #20

61 plays #22

Pace

◀ TEN faster

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	TEN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #27	23.5 #22	IND
Yards / play	4.95 #26	5.49 #17	IND
EPA / play	−0.14 #30	−0.02 #9	IND
Success rate	39% #29	43% #12	IND

When IND has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	IND off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #23	27.1 #29	IND
Yards / play	5.26 #18	5.01 #5	TEN
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.01 #17	TEN
Success rate	38% #31	42% #8	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.9 #8	4.0 #31	9.9 #22	4.0 #24	4.1 #30	8.1 #32
IND allowed	3.5 #8	6.4 #13	9.9 #10	4.8 #14	8.8 #26	13.6 #25

IND scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.9 #13	4.4 #28	9.3 #23	2.3 #32	8.4 #4	10.7 #17
TEN allowed	5.9 #29	7.4 #21	13.3 #28	6.4 #30	7.4 #25	13.8 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.