Chiefs @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Wed, Dec 25, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff38°F3 mphgusts 8DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

14-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-5 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

KC -1.5

✓ KC W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 22–20 PIT

✓ KC (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -2.5

CloseKC -1.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -2.5

1 → PIT

CloseKC -1.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open43.5

▲ 2

Close45.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -2.5 · closed KC -1.5 · moved 1 toward PITmodel KC -1.5 matches the line

model KC -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 62% (55 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 39% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -2.5

CloseKC -1.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 1.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 29–10; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 56%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 2.2; 44.5 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLLWW	6-9	40%	3-4	5-8
PIT LWWLL	9-5	64%	5-1	5-2

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUUUO	7-8	47%	14-1
PIT OOUUO	8-6	57%	10-5

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
PIT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 8–8 PIT Series tied · 16 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+3.5▲ 1.3#6

PIT−0.4 →+1.8▲ 2.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

PIT

#12

Offense

◀ KC better

#19

Defense

Even

#11

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.1 #2

67 plays #1

Pace

◀ KC faster

63 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #11	19.9 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.08 #24	5.36 #12	PIT
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.04 #7	Even
Success rate	49% #4	44% #15	KC

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	PIT off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #12	18.5 #3	KC
Yards / play	5.13 #21	5.23 #8	KC
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.01 #10	KC
Success rate	41% #25	43% #10	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.8 #18	9.4 #4	13.2 #9	3.7 #26	6.4 #17	10.1 #21
PIT allowed	5.9 #31	5.4 #6	11.3 #16	1.7 #1	6.9 #20	8.6 #3

PIT scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.2 #25	7.1 #17	10.3 #20	6.5 #5	6.7 #15	13.2 #10
KC allowed	3.3 #6	5.5 #9	8.8 #5	4.4 #11	5.3 #10	9.7 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.