Dolphins @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff51°F14 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

7-8 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

3-12 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

✓ MIA W

Total

32.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 22–19 CLE

✓ MIA (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -6

CloseMIA -3.5

Total40.5 → 32.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -6

2.5 → CLE

CloseMIA -3.5

2.5 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open40.5

▼ 8

Close32.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -6 · closed MIA -3.5 · moved 2.5 toward CLEmodel MIA -3.5 matches the line

model MIA -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 58% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -6

CloseMIA -3.5

Total40.5 → 32.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 3.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIA won 20–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 32.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.3 against an average line of 2.9; 34.3 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL @ CAR 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	7–9	L	U32.5
Close	HOU @ NYJ 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	6–30	L	O33.5
Loose	ATL @ NYJ 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2	13–8	W	U33
Loose	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5
Loose	PIT @ CLE 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	19–24	L	O36.5
Loose	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	23–28	L	O35
Loose	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Loose	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & rest	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Loose	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5
Loose	DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	10–23	L	U36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLLLW	6-9	40%	3-4	3-5
CLE WLLLL	4-11	27%	2-5	4-7

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOUO	7-8	47%	7-8
CLE OOUUU	6-9	40%	3-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 5–6 CLE CLE leads · 11 games since 2004 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →0.0▼ 1.5#17

CLE+1.1 →−3.5▼ 4.6#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MIA

Longer bar = better

CLE

#19

Offense

◀ MIA better

#31

#14

Defense

◀ MIA better

#18

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−1.2 #32

64 plays #8

Pace

CLE faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #23	25.3 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.14 #21	5.57 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	45% #13	41% #6	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	CLE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #31	21.9 #11	MIA
Yards / play	4.67 #30	5.37 #14	MIA
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	0.00 #13	MIA
Success rate	38% #32	44% #18	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.7 #20	5.6 #24	9.3 #23	4.5 #16	6.1 #18	10.6 #16
CLE allowed	4.4 #16	9.4 #29	13.8 #28	6.3 #29	5.2 #10	11.5 #18

CLE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.3 #24	3.4 #32	6.7 #32	3.7 #26	5.9 #21	9.6 #25
MIA allowed	4.3 #15	6.5 #14	10.8 #13	5.2 #20	5.9 #15	11.1 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.