Falcons @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

Weather at kickoff48°F14 mphgusts 24Wet0.2 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

6-7 · Power #24

final

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-12 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ CAR W

Total

32.5

▼ Under · 16 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 21–18 CAR

✗ ATL (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total32.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close32.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total32.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 9–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 16 points stayed under 32.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 7 against an average line of 2.4; 31.2 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ NYJ 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	13–8	W	U33
Very close	HOU @ NYJ 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	6–30	L	O33.5
Close	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-2.5	23–28	L	O35
Close	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Close	DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	10–23	L	U36
Close	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	16–10	W	U36
Loose	NYJ @ NYG 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3	13–10	P	U34.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	7–14	L	U36.5
Loose	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Loose	NE @ NYG 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	7–10	L	U36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-2	1-5
CAR WLLWL	3-5	38%	1-2	3-5

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOUUO	4-4	50%	6-7
CAR UUUOU	2-6	25%	1-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	4-6 40%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%
CAR	1-9 10%	3-5 38%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 33–22 CAR ATL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 10 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−1.2▼ 3.3#20

CAR−2.1 →−4.5▼ 2.4#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

ATL

Longer bar = better

CAR

#23

Offense

◀ ATL better

#31

Defense

◀ ATL better

#25

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−0.6 #30

66 plays #7

Pace

Even

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #24	26.2 #31	ATL
Yards / play	5.10 #20	5.00 #11	CAR
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	+0.03 #28	Even
Success rate	41% #23	45% #28	ATL

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	CAR off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	15.2 #30	20.7 #12	ATL
Yards / play	4.05 #32	4.97 #9	ATL
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	−0.07 #7	ATL
Success rate	38% #31	39% #4	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.1 #24	5.2 #23	8.3 #26	2.9 #29	8.1 #4	11.0 #14
CAR allowed	3.4 #6	9.8 #31	13.2 #27	4.7 #18	8.3 #30	13.0 #27

CAR scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.6 #28	4.4 #29	7.0 #29	3.3 #27	4.8 #24	8.2 #27
ATL allowed	3.4 #6	7.8 #23	11.2 #15	5.2 #24	4.3 #4	9.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.