Bengals @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sat, Jan 4, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff19°F10 mphgusts 21DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

8-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-6 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

✓ PIT W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 25–23 PIT

✓ CIN (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -2.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -2.5

no move

CloseCIN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -2.5 · unchangedmodel PIT -1

model PIT -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (96 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -2.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 2.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 19–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 3.2; 44.3 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5
Close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWWWW	10-6	63%	7-1	8-4
PIT WWLLL	9-6	60%	5-2	5-3

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOUO	11-5	69%	8-8
PIT OUUOU	8-7	53%	10-6

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 49% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CIN 16–41 PIT PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 1 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 44 @ Cincinnati Bengals 38	CIN -3.5	PIT W
Dec 23 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 11 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 34	CIN -3	PIT W
Nov 26 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 16 @ Cincinnati Bengals 10	PIT -2	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →+0.6▲ 0.8#14

PIT−0.4 →+1.5▲ 1.9#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CIN

Longer bar = better

PIT

Offense

◀ CIN better

#20

#27

Defense

PIT better ▶

#13

+0.3 #14

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.9 #2

63 plays #12

Pace

PIT faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #6	20.5 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #8	5.44 #17	CIN
EPA / play	+0.10 #7	−0.02 #11	Even
Success rate	47% #7	44% #18	CIN

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #14	26.1 #29	PIT
Yards / play	5.12 #23	5.56 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.05 #26	PIT
Success rate	41% #22	47% #30	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	7.8 #12	13.4 #7	6.8 #5	7.8 #8	14.6 #5
PIT allowed	6.4 #32	5.1 #3	11.4 #18	1.8 #1	7.3 #23	9.1 #6

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.0 #26	7.1 #14	10.1 #21	6.3 #7	6.3 #16	12.6 #11
CIN allowed	3.9 #8	7.4 #19	11.3 #16	5.6 #23	9.1 #30	14.6 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.