Steelers @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2024)

Sat, Jan 11, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Weather at kickoff28°F10 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-7 · Power #12

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

12-5 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

✓ BAL W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 18–28 BAL

✓ BAL (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -8.5

CloseBAL -9.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -8.5

1 → BAL

CloseBAL -9.5

1 pt toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -8.5 · closed BAL -9.5 · moved 1 toward BALmodel BAL -11

model BAL -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 47% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -8.5

CloseBAL -9.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 9.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 28–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 9.4; 44.8 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Close	DET vs CHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings	-10	23–20	L	U48.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Loose	BUF vs NE 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & rest	-8	35–23	W	O44
Loose	BUF vs NYJ 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-10	20–12	L	U43
Loose	TB vs NO 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-11.5	0–9	L	U45.5
Loose	SF vs SEA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-9	41–23	W	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLLLW	10-6	63%	4-4	6-3
BAL LWWWW	10-7	59%	4-4	10-6

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UUOUU	8-8	50%	10-7
BAL UOOUO	13-4	76%	12-5

Stayed under: it needed 3 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BAL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

PIT 33–26 BAL PIT leads · 59 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -7.5	BAL W
Nov 17 2024	Baltimore Ravens 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 18	BAL -3.5	PIT W
Jan 6 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 10	PIT -3	PIT W
Oct 8 2023	Baltimore Ravens 10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.4 →+1.2▲ 1.6#12

BAL+3.1 →+7.0▲ 3.9#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

PIT

Longer bar = better

BAL

#23

Offense

BAL better ▶

#13

Defense

BAL better ▶

+0.9 #2

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.4 #11

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ PIT faster

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	PIT off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #17	21.2 #9	BAL
Yards / play	5.02 #26	5.19 #6	BAL
EPA / play	−0.03 #20	−0.05 #8	BAL
Success rate	40% #27	39% #1	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #3	20.4 #8	BAL
Yards / play	6.85 #1	5.37 #14	BAL
EPA / play	+0.22 #1	−0.02 #10	BAL
Success rate	50% #2	45% #19	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.8 #29	7.1 #18	9.9 #22	5.9 #7	6.5 #14	12.4 #12
BAL allowed	2.7 #3	6.3 #10	9.0 #5	4.0 #8	8.2 #27	12.2 #21

BAL scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	5.2 #9	9.6 #2	14.8 #2	7.3 #3	8.2 #4	15.5 #2
PIT allowed	6.6 #32	4.9 #4	11.5 #18	1.9 #1	7.0 #20	8.9 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.