Ravens @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Divisional Playoffs, 2024)

Sun, Jan 19, 2025, 6:30 PM ESTAFC Divisional Playoffs · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff15°F4 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

13-5 · Power #1

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

14-4 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

✓ BUF W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 27–26 BUF

✗ BAL (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -1

CloseBAL -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -1

2.5 → BAL

CloseBAL -1.5

2.5 pts toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -1 · closed BAL -1.5 · moved 2.5 toward BALmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 58% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -1

CloseBAL -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at BUF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 27–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 3; 52.2 points a game (usually 43.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB @ MIN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & rest	-0.5	25–27	L	O48.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Loose	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Loose	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Loose	BUF @ MIA 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–14	W	U48
Loose	DET @ SF 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	40–34	W	O50.5
Loose	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Loose	KC @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	24–27	L	U53.5
Loose	BUF @ KC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	24–20	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL WWWWW	11-7	61%	6-3	11-6
BUF WLWLW	11-7	61%	6-3	2-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; BUF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOUOU	13-5	72%	13-5
BUF OUOOU	12-6	67%	14-4

Went over in Q4. Of 25 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–54.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
BUF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAL 7–7 BUF Series tied · 14 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Buffalo Bills 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 35	BAL -2.5	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+7.2▲ 4.1#1

BUF+2.3 →+5.4▲ 3.1#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

BAL

Longer bar = better

BUF

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ BAL better

#14

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.3 #1

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ BAL faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #3	20.8 #10	BAL
Yards / play	6.82 #1	5.51 #21	BAL
EPA / play	+0.22 #1	−0.01 #10	BAL
Success rate	50% #2	44% #15	BAL

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #2	20.8 #9	BUF
Yards / play	5.99 #6	5.23 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.04 #8	BUF
Success rate	48% #5	39% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	5.3 #7	9.9 #2	15.2 #2	7.3 #3	7.7 #6	15.0 #2
BUF allowed	4.7 #23	7.0 #18	11.7 #19	3.0 #2	6.1 #15	9.1 #6

BUF scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.4 #6	8.6 #5	14.0 #5	8.6 #2	8.3 #4	16.9 #1
BAL allowed	2.6 #1	5.9 #9	8.5 #3	4.6 #10	7.8 #26	12.3 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.