Broncos @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2024)

Sun, Jan 12, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff31°F7 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Denver Broncos

10-7 · Power #15

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

13-4 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

✓ BUF W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 20–27 BUF

✓ BUF (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -8

CloseBUF -7.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -8

0.5 → DEN

CloseBUF -7.5

0.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -8 · closed BUF -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward DENmodel BUF -6.5

model BUF -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 47% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -8

CloseBUF -7.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 7.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 6.7; 45.8 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs DEN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	41–10	W	O46.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLLW	12-4	75%	6-3	4-4
BUF LWLWL	10-7	59%	5-3	8-5

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN OOOOU	11-5	69%	10-7
BUF OOUOO	12-5	71%	13-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
BUF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 6–6 BUF Series tied · 12 games since 2002 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 13 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Buffalo Bills 22	BUF -7.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →+1.5▲ 2.5#11

BUF+2.3 →+4.8▲ 2.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

DEN

Longer bar = better

BUF

#15

Offense

BUF better ▶

Defense

◀ DEN better

#16

+0.4 #12

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.4 #1

62 plays #17

Pace

◀ DEN faster

60 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #10	21.6 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.23 #19	5.52 #21	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	−0.01 #12	Even
Success rate	43% #17	44% #16	Even

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #2	18.3 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #6	4.93 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	−0.12 #1	Even
Success rate	47% #7	39% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	3.6 #23	8.9 #3	12.5 #11	4.4 #17	8.1 #5	12.5 #12
BUF allowed	4.6 #22	7.4 #20	12.0 #19	3.2 #3	6.5 #16	9.6 #9

BUF scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.5 #6	8.7 #6	14.2 #4	8.5 #2	8.2 #4	16.6 #1
DEN allowed	4.0 #12	6.3 #11	10.3 #10	2.9 #2	4.7 #3	7.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.