Commanders @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2024)

Sun, Jan 12, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff57°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

12-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10-7 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

TB -3.5

✓ WSH W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 24–28 TB

✗ TB (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -2.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -2.5

1 → TB

CloseTB -3.5

1 pt toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -2.5 · closed TB -3.5 · moved 1 toward TBmodel TB -3.5 matches the line

model TB -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (137 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 38% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -2.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.3 against an average line of 3.1; 54.1 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs BUF 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	42–48	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLWWL	11-6	65%	4-4	4-2
TB WWLWL	10-7	59%	5-4	5-4

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OUOOU	11-6	65%	12-5
TB UOOOO	12-5	71%	10-7

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 36% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSH 9–9 TB Series tied · 18 games since 1999 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	Washington Commanders 20 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37	TB -3.5	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →+1.1▲ 4.2#13

TB+0.1 →+2.8▲ 2.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

WSH

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#15

Defense

Even

#18

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

−0.3 #21

65 plays #5

Pace

Even

64 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #5	22.6 #16	WSH
Yards / play	5.71 #10	5.46 #18	WSH
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	+0.02 #17	WSH
Success rate	48% #4	45% #20	WSH

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #4	23.0 #18	TB
Yards / play	6.21 #4	5.40 #15	TB
EPA / play	+0.13 #5	+0.01 #15	TB
Success rate	49% #3	43% #12	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	6.4 #2	7.6 #12	14.0 #4	5.6 #9	8.6 #2	14.2 #6
TB allowed	4.2 #14	9.8 #31	14.0 #30	3.8 #6	4.1 #2	7.9 #1

TB scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	6.9 #1	7.9 #9	14.8 #3	5.6 #9	8.9 #1	14.5 #5
WSH allowed	3.9 #10	4.6 #2	8.6 #5	4.9 #17	9.5 #30	14.4 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.