Chargers @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2024)

Sat, Jan 11, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

11-6 · Power #13

final

Final

Houston Texans

10-7 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 23–21 HOU

✗ LAC (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

no move

CloseLAC -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▼ 3

Close41.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · unchangedmodel LAC -1.5

model LAC -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (98 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 32–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 2.9; 45 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	16–33	L	O43.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	SEA @ NE 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–20	L	O39.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WLWWW	13-4	76%	7-2	11-2
HOU LWLLW	7-10	41%	3-5	3-3

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UOOOO	8-9	47%	11-6
HOU UUOUO	6-11	35%	10-7

Went over in Q4. Of 121 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 6–5 HOU LAC leads · 11 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →+1.6▲ 2.3#10

HOU+0.1 →+0.5▲ 0.4#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

LAC

Longer bar = better

HOU

#15

Offense

◀ LAC better

#24

Defense

Even

+0.7 #5

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #7

60 plays #29

Pace

HOU faster ▶

62 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	LAC off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #11	21.9 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.10 #4	HOU
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.06 #5	HOU
Success rate	42% #20	40% #4	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	HOU off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #19	17.7 #1	LAC
Yards / play	5.14 #21	5.32 #13	LAC
EPA / play	−0.06 #23	−0.06 #7	LAC
Success rate	39% #31	42% #8	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.1 #10	8.2 #8	13.4 #8	4.3 #21	6.0 #23	10.3 #19
HOU allowed	4.4 #15	5.1 #5	9.5 #6	5.9 #26	6.5 #18	12.4 #22

HOU scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.5 #6	7.6 #11	13.1 #10	3.8 #24	4.9 #29	8.8 #29
LAC allowed	2.7 #2	5.2 #6	7.9 #2	3.6 #4	6.2 #16	9.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.