Vikings @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs - Moved to Arizona due to wildfires in Los Angeles, 2024)

Mon, Jan 13, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs - Moved to Arizona due to wildfires in Los Angeles · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

14-3 · Power #8

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

10-7 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

✓ LAR W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 25–22 LAR

✗ MIN (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -2.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -2.5

no move

CloseMIN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -2.5 · unchangedmodel MIN -1

model MIN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (99 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -2.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point road favorite at LAR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 27–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 2.5; 40.3 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	LAC @ ATL 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-0.5	17–13	W	U47.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWWL	12-5	71%	5-3	7-4
LAR WWWLW	9-8	53%	4-5	5-5

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; LAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUOOU	7-10	41%	14-3
LAR OUUUO	8-9	47%	10-7

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
LAR	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIN 6–8 LAR LAR leads · 14 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 24 2024	Minnesota Vikings 20 @ Los Angeles Rams 30	MIN -2.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.5▲ 2.6#8

LAR+0.7 →−0.1▼ 0.8#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

MIN

Longer bar = better

LAR

#11

Offense

◀ MIN better

#15

Defense

◀ MIN better

#24

+0.7 #4

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

+0.4 #11

62 plays #17

Pace

Even

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #9	22.7 #17	MIN
Yards / play	5.60 #11	5.68 #26	MIN
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	+0.04 #25	MIN
Success rate	46% #12	46% #27	MIN

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	LAR off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #20	19.5 #5	MIN
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.29 #10	MIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	−0.09 #4	MIN
Success rate	47% #10	42% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	6.4 #2	6.1 #23	12.5 #11	6.6 #4	6.1 #20	12.8 #9
LAR allowed	5.4 #26	5.4 #5	10.8 #14	5.8 #26	5.8 #12	11.6 #17

LAR scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.8 #31	6.8 #19	8.6 #26	5.4 #11	7.2 #10	12.6 #10
MIN allowed	2.8 #3	5.0 #4	7.8 #1	4.4 #9	7.4 #22	11.8 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.