Rams @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Divisional Playoffs, 2024)

Sun, Jan 19, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTNFC Divisional Playoffs · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff33°F8 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

11-7 · Power #16

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

15-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

✓ LAR W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 18–26 PHI

✓ PHI (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -6

ClosePHI -7.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -6

1.5 → PHI

ClosePHI -7.5

1.5 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -6 · closed PHI -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward PHImodel PHI -5.5

model PHI -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 47% (70 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (59 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -6

ClosePHI -7.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 7.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 28–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 7.2; 46.9 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	BUF vs SF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWLWW	10-8	56%	5-3	6-5
PHI WLWWW	12-6	67%	5-4	9-6

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UUUOU	8-10	44%	11-7
PHI UOOUU	7-11	39%	15-3

Went over in Q4. Of 138 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
PHI	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LAR 5–12 PHI PHI leads · 17 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2024	Philadelphia Eagles 37 @ Los Angeles Rams 20	PHI -2.5	PHI W
Oct 8 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 23 @ Los Angeles Rams 14	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.7 →+0.3▼ 0.4#16

PHI−0.1 →+5.6▲ 5.7#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

LAR

Longer bar = better

PHI

#15

Offense

PHI better ▶

#10

#20

Defense

PHI better ▶

+0.4 #10

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+0.8 #3

61 plays #24

Pace

PHI faster ▶

65 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	LAR off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #20	17.4 #1	PHI
Yards / play	5.43 #15	4.75 #1	PHI
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	−0.10 #1	PHI
Success rate	47% #10	40% #3	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #7	21.9 #15	PHI
Yards / play	5.58 #11	5.56 #23	PHI
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	+0.02 #17	PHI
Success rate	45% #14	45% #23	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	2.2 #30	7.2 #16	9.4 #23	5.3 #11	6.8 #12	12.1 #11
PHI allowed	4.2 #15	4.2 #1	8.4 #2	3.7 #4	5.3 #8	9.0 #5

PHI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	4.0 #19	8.3 #7	12.3 #14	6.2 #7	8.4 #3	14.7 #4
LAR allowed	5.1 #26	5.2 #3	10.3 #10	5.8 #26	5.5 #11	11.3 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.