Commanders @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Championship, 2024)

Sun, Jan 26, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTNFC Championship · at Philadelphia Eagles · Division game

Weather at kickoff38°F8 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington Commanders

14-5 · Power #10

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

16-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

✓ PHI W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 21–27 PHI

✓ PHI (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -6

ClosePHI -6.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -6

0.5 → PHI

ClosePHI -6.5

0.5 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -6 · closed PHI -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward PHImodel PHI -4.5

model PHI -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 49% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -6

ClosePHI -6.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 6.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 55–23; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 6.7; 43.9 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Very close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Very close	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Close	BUF vs SF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WWLWW	13-6	68%	6-4	6-2
PHI LWWWL	12-7	63%	5-5	9-7

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUUO	12-7	63%	14-5
PHI OOUUO	8-11	42%	16-3

Went over in Q3. Of 108 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PHI	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

WSH 21–35 PHI PHI leads · 56 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2024	Philadelphia Eagles 33 @ Washington Commanders 36	PHI -4.5	WSH W
Nov 14 2024	Washington Commanders 18 @ Philadelphia Eagles 26	PHI -4.5	PHI W
Oct 29 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 38 @ Washington Commanders 31	PHI -7	P
Oct 1 2023	Washington Commanders 31 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34	PHI -8.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →+1.9▲ 5.0#9

PHI−0.1 →+5.5▲ 5.6#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotDIV

WSH

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ WSH better

#10

#19

Defense

PHI better ▶

+0.4 #9

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+0.9 #2

65 plays #3

Pace

Even

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #4	17.6 #1	Even
Yards / play	5.72 #10	4.81 #1	PHI
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	−0.09 #1	Even
Success rate	48% #4	40% #3	Even

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #7	23.3 #18	PHI
Yards / play	5.59 #11	5.58 #23	PHI
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	+0.02 #17	PHI
Success rate	45% #14	44% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.9 #4	8.8 #4	14.7 #3	5.2 #12	8.9 #1	14.1 #6
PHI allowed	4.4 #17	4.1 #1	8.5 #2	3.8 #6	5.4 #9	9.2 #7

PHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	4.5 #16	7.8 #9	12.3 #13	6.1 #7	8.6 #2	14.7 #4
WSH allowed	4.1 #13	5.3 #4	9.3 #5	5.1 #22	8.8 #29	13.9 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.