Sun, Feb 9, 2025, 6:30 PM ESTSuper Bowl LIX · Neutral site
Closing spread
KC -1.5
✓ PHI W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 62 pts
Model before kickoff
KC 22–21 PHI
✗ KC (54%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKC -1.5
CloseKC -1.5
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKC -1.5
no move
CloseKC -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open49.5
▼ 1
Close48.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KC -1.5 · unchangedmodel PHI -2.5
model PHI -2.5
Opened 49.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 1 downmodel 43.5
model 43.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKC -1.5
CloseKC -1.5
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 1 games most like 
KC as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against PHI, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: PHI won 40–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 62 points went over 48.5, as in 1 of 1.
Favorite won
0 of 10%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
0 of 10%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
1 of 1100%
Normal range · usually 43%
Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 1.5; 73 points a game (usually 43.3). When games like this go over ›
All 1 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  PHI vs KC2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest |
-1.5 | 35–38 | L | O51.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
Slight Philadelphia Eagles ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Philadelphia Eagles 3-0 ATS as an underdog
Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 90 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| PHI | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
KC 4–6 PHI
PHI leads · 10 games since 2001 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20 2023 | Philadelphia Eagles 21 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17 | KC -2 | PHI W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
KC+2.2 →+3.0▲ 0.8#6
PHI−0.1 →+6.0▲ 6.1#2
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotCONF
KCLonger bar = better
PHI#13
Offense
PHI better ▶#9
#13
Defense
PHI better ▶#2
+0.3 #11
Turnovers
PHI better ▶+1.1 #2
63 plays #9
Pace
PHI faster ▶65 plays #5
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When KC has the ball| KC off | PHI def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.2 #12 | 17.9 #1 | PHI |
| Yards / play | 5.11 #23 | 4.80 #1 | PHI |
| EPA / play | +0.08 #8 | −0.09 #1 | PHI |
| Success rate | 48% #7 | 40% #3 | Even |
When PHI has the ball| PHI off | KC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 28.4 #6 | 19.4 #4 | Even |
| Yards / play | 5.66 #10 | 5.32 #12 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.12 #6 | +0.03 #20 | PHI |
| Success rate | 45% #12 | 44% #16 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
KC scoring against the PHI defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC scored | 4.4 #17 | 8.5 #6 | 12.9 #10 | 3.1 #28 | 6.8 #12 | 9.9 #23 |
| PHI allowed | 4.3 #14 | 4.5 #1 | 8.8 #3 | 4.0 #7 | 5.1 #8 | 9.1 #6 |
PHI scoring against the KC defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI scored | 5.0 #13 | 8.1 #9 | 13.1 #8 | 6.1 #7 | 9.3 #1 | 15.3 #2 |
| KC allowed | 3.6 #6 | 6.1 #8 | 9.7 #7 | 4.6 #13 | 5.1 #7 | 9.7 #9 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
KC14d bye
PHI14d bye
Even
Tempo
Average 128 plays
slowavg 124fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week