Bills @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Championship, 2024)

Sun, Jan 26, 2025, 6:30 PM ESTAFC Championship · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff28°F3 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

15-4 · Power #4

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

16-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -2.5

✓ KC W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 22–24 KC

✓ KC (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -1

CloseKC -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -1

1.5 → KC

CloseKC -2.5

1.5 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -1 · closed KC -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward KCmodel BUF -3

model BUF -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (135 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -1

CloseKC -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 32–29; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 7 against an average line of 2.9; 51.4 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWLWW	12-7	63%	5-4	3-2
KC WWWLL	7-11	39%	3-6	6-9

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF UOOUO	13-6	68%	15-4
KC UOUUU	7-11	39%	16-2

Went over in Q4. Of 77 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
KC	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BUF 12–11 KC BUF leads · 23 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 17 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 21 @ Buffalo Bills 30	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Jan 21 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -2.5	KC W
Dec 10 2023	Buffalo Bills 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 17	KC -2	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+5.3▲ 3.0#4

KC+2.2 →+3.0▲ 0.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotDIV

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#15

#16

Defense

KC better ▶

#11

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

+0.3 #10

61 plays #22

Pace

KC faster ▶

63 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #2	18.9 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.92 #6	5.30 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	+0.02 #15	BUF
Success rate	48% #5	44% #16	BUF

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #15	21.1 #8	BUF
Yards / play	5.07 #25	5.60 #25	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.01 #11	Even
Success rate	47% #9	44% #19	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.5 #6	8.9 #4	14.4 #5	8.2 #2	8.2 #4	16.3 #1
KC allowed	3.7 #7	5.7 #8	9.4 #5	4.6 #11	4.9 #6	9.5 #9

KC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.2 #17	8.2 #7	12.4 #12	3.3 #27	6.6 #14	9.9 #23
BUF allowed	4.8 #24	6.8 #15	11.6 #18	3.3 #2	6.1 #15	9.4 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.