Texans @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Divisional Playoffs, 2024)

Sat, Jan 18, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTAFC Divisional Playoffs · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff22°F9 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

11-7 · Power #11

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

15-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -9.5

✓ HOU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 16–25 KC

✓ KC (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -7.5

CloseKC -9.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -7.5

2 → KC

CloseKC -9.5

2 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -7.5 · closed KC -9.5 · moved 2 toward KCmodel KC -5.5

model KC -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 49% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -7.5

CloseKC -9.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 9.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 23–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 8.9; 44.4 points a game (usually 47). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	KC vs TB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-8.5	30–24	L	O45.5
Close	DEN vs KC 2024 · Week 18 · close	-11.5	38–0	W	U40.5
Loose	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar total & situation	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Loose	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Loose	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Loose	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Loose	JAX vs CIN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10	31–34	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLLWW	8-10	44%	4-5	4-3
KC LWWWL	7-10	41%	3-5	6-8

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOUOO	7-11	39%	11-7
KC UUOUU	7-10	41%	15-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 51% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
KC	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 6–11 KC KC leads · 17 games since 2003 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 21 2024	Houston Texans 19 @ Kansas City Chiefs 27	KC -3.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.1▲ 1.0#11

KC+2.2 →+3.1▲ 0.9#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

HOU

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

KC better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ HOU better

#11

+0.6 #4

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.4 #11

63 plays #11

Pace

KC faster ▶

64 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	HOU off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #16	19.2 #4	KC
Yards / play	5.20 #21	5.31 #12	KC
EPA / play	−0.06 #25	+0.01 #15	KC
Success rate	39% #31	44% #14	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	KC off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #15	21.3 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #23	5.09 #4	HOU
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.09 #3	HOU
Success rate	48% #7	40% #2	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.2 #9	7.7 #11	12.9 #8	4.2 #21	5.3 #27	9.5 #25
KC allowed	3.7 #7	5.9 #9	9.6 #7	4.5 #10	5.1 #8	9.6 #9

KC scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.1 #16	8.3 #6	12.4 #11	3.5 #26	6.4 #15	9.9 #23
HOU allowed	4.4 #19	4.8 #3	9.3 #6	5.6 #25	6.5 #17	12.1 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.