Bears @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff18°F9 mphgusts 21DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Chicago Bears

4-12 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

11-5 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

GB -10.5

✓ CHI W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 16–26 GB

✗ GB (83%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -10

CloseGB -10.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -10

0.5 → GB

CloseGB -10.5

0.5 pts toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -10 · closed GB -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward GBmodel GB -12

model GB -12

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -10

CloseGB -10.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 10.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 24–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 41.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.8 against an average line of 10.8; 49.4 points a game (usually 47.4). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-11	41–17	W	O43
Close	TB vs CAR 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	48–14	W	O47.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-11	14–20	L	U40.5
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-11	21–32	L	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLLW	8-8	50%	2-5	5-7
GB WWWWL	9-7	56%	5-3	6-5

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UOUOU	6-10	38%	4-12
GB UOUUO	8-8	50%	11-5

Went over in Q4. Of 115 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
GB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CHI 16–41 GB GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 17 2024	Green Bay Packers 20 @ Chicago Bears 19	GB -6.5	CHI W
Jan 7 2023	Chicago Bears 9 @ Green Bay Packers 17	GB -2.5	GB W
Sep 10 2023	Green Bay Packers 38 @ Chicago Bears 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →−2.8▼ 2.5#24

GB+0.5 →+4.7▲ 4.2#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CHI

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

GB better ▶

#20

Defense

GB better ▶

#11

+0.5 #9

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.8 #3

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ CHI faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #29	19.6 #6	GB
Yards / play	4.56 #32	5.23 #10	GB
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.06 #4	GB
Success rate	40% #29	45% #22	GB

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #8	21.8 #13	GB
Yards / play	6.14 #5	5.85 #30	GB
EPA / play	+0.09 #8	+0.01 #16	GB
Success rate	45% #14	44% #19	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.3 #32	5.8 #24	7.1 #31	3.9 #24	6.9 #12	10.8 #14
GB allowed	2.1 #1	8.8 #28	10.9 #13	5.3 #22	3.4 #1	8.8 #5

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.6 #4	7.1 #14	13.7 #6	6.2 #7	7.5 #8	13.7 #8
CHI allowed	5.6 #29	7.3 #18	12.9 #25	4.0 #7	4.7 #4	8.7 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.