Panthers @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

4-12 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

8-8 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

ATL -7.5

✓ CAR W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 20–28 ATL

✗ ATL (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -8

CloseATL -7.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -8

0.5 → CAR

CloseATL -7.5

0.5 pts toward Carolina Panthers

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -8 · closed ATL -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward CARmodel ATL -11.5

model ATL -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 48% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -8

CloseATL -7.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 7.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 44–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 7.5; 53.2 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Close	ATL vs NYG 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–7	W	U43.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	ARI vs NE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	30–17	W	O46.5
Loose	TB vs CAR 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O47.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Loose	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WWLWL	7-9	44%	2-5	7-8
ATL LLWWL	7-9	44%	3-5	6-4

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUOOO	12-4	75%	4-12
ATL UOUUO	6-10	38%	8-8

Went over in Q3. Of 85 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ATL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CAR 22–33 ATL ATL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2024	Atlanta Falcons 38 @ Carolina Panthers 20	ATL -6.5	ATL W
Dec 17 2023	Atlanta Falcons 7 @ Carolina Panthers 9	ATL -2.5	CAR W
Sep 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 10 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.5 →−7.2▼ 4.7#32

ATL−0.8 →−0.4▲ 0.4#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CAR

Longer bar = better

ATL

#25

Offense

ATL better ▶

#12

#32

Defense

ATL better ▶

#22

−0.4 #22

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #19

58 plays #31

Pace

ATL faster ▶

63 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #25	23.7 #20	ATL
Yards / play	5.00 #26	5.43 #16	ATL
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.04 #25	Even
Success rate	41% #23	46% #28	CAR

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #16	31.0 #32	ATL
Yards / play	5.70 #10	5.89 #31	ATL
EPA / play	+0.01 #14	+0.15 #32	ATL
Success rate	47% #9	50% #32	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.6 #22	6.5 #21	10.1 #21	3.9 #24	4.0 #31	7.9 #32
ATL allowed	4.0 #10	8.9 #29	12.9 #25	4.3 #11	6.1 #15	10.4 #12

ATL scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.8 #13	8.0 #8	12.8 #12	5.4 #12	3.4 #32	8.8 #28
CAR allowed	5.9 #30	12.0 #32	17.9 #32	5.9 #25	7.1 #23	12.9 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.