Falcons @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

3-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-4 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

✓ ATL W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 26–19 CAR

✓ ATL (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -4.5

CloseATL -6.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -4.5

2 → ATL

CloseATL -6.5

2 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -4.5 · closed ATL -6.5 · moved 2 toward ATLmodel ATL -4.5

model ATL -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -4.5

CloseATL -6.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 6.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 38–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 6.6; 43 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	NO @ NYJ 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	30–9	W	U42
Loose	PHI @ NYJ 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings	-5.5	33–18	W	O43.5
Loose	TEN @ NYJ 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	24–27	L	O44
Loose	SEA @ HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings	-7.5	33–13	W	O41.5
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings	-6	27–14	W	U46
Loose	MIN @ DET 2021 · Week 13 · loose	-7	27–29	L	O47
Loose	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · loose	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Loose	MIN @ CHI 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	17–9	W	U47.5
Loose	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-0	1-2
CAR LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-4

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2
CAR OUOOO	4-1	80%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 74 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
CAR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ATL 33–22 CAR ATL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	Atlanta Falcons 7 @ Carolina Panthers 9	ATL -2.5	CAR W
Sep 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 10 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−0.4▲ 0.4#20

CAR−2.5 →−5.2▼ 2.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ATL

Longer bar = better

CAR

#13

Offense

◀ ATL better

#27

#20

Defense

◀ ATL better

#29

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−0.6 #25

59 plays #21

Pace

Even

60 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #17	33.0 #32	ATL
Yards / play	6.04 #8	5.85 #28	ATL
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	+0.13 #29	ATL
Success rate	44% #14	47% #27	ATL

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	CAR off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #29	23.0 #19	ATL
Yards / play	4.87 #23	5.13 #8	ATL
EPA / play	−0.17 #27	+0.07 #24	Even
Success rate	39% #27	49% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.8 #15	8.0 #12	12.8 #13	3.0 #26	5.2 #21	8.2 #26
CAR allowed	8.8 #32	12.2 #32	21.0 #32	4.6 #13	7.4 #24	12.0 #19

CAR scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.8 #25	6.2 #17	9.0 #21	5.2 #13	2.4 #31	7.6 #28
ATL allowed	4.0 #11	9.4 #26	13.4 #22	4.8 #14	4.8 #13	9.6 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.