49ers @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Los Angeles Rams · Division game

Weather at kickoff75°F14 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

1-1 · Power #9

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

0-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -6.5

✓ LAR W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 27–20 LAR

✗ SF (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -7

CloseSF -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -7

0.5 → LAR

CloseSF -6.5

0.5 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -7 · closed SF -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward LARmodel SF -5.5

model SF -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -7

CloseSF -6.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like SF as a 6.5-point road favorite at LAR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 9 similar games. 51 points went over 44.5, as in 3 of 9.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 6.7; 43.7 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5
Loose	PHI @ NYJ 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	33–18	W	O43.5
Loose	CIN @ DAL 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-7	17–20	L	U42
Loose	NO @ NYJ 2021 · Week 14 · loose	-6	30–9	W	U42
Loose	BAL @ MIA 2021 · Week 10 · loose	-6.5	10–22	L	U47
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Loose	SF @ JAX 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-7	30–10	W	U45.5
Loose	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Loose	MIN @ DET 2021 · Week 13 · loose	-7	27–29	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1
LAR LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; LAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OU	1-1	50%	1-1
LAR UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Went over in Q4. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 14% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%
LAR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SF 31–24 LAR (1 tied) SF leads · 56 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Los Angeles Rams 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 20	SF -5.5	LAR W
Sep 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 30 @ Los Angeles Rams 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+3.5▲ 0.3#1

LAR+0.7 →−1.2▼ 1.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

LAR

Offense

◀ SF better

#20

#22

Defense

◀ SF better

#32

+1.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ SF better

0.0 #19

69 plays #4

Pace

◀ SF faster

63 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #9	33.5 #31	SF
Yards / play	5.82 #8	6.93 #32	SF
EPA / play	+0.01 #13	+0.23 #32	SF
Success rate	47% #7	53% #31	SF

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #28	21.0 #17	SF
Yards / play	5.02 #21	6.50 #30	LAR
EPA / play	−0.08 #20	−0.05 #14	SF
Success rate	46% #12	47% #26	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 teams

SF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	1.5	10.0	11.5	5.0	8.0	13.0
LAR allowed	7.0	10.0	17.0	8.5	5.0	13.5

LAR scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.5	1.5	3.0	7.0	5.0	12.0
SF allowed	5.0	5.0	10.0	6.5	4.5	11.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.