Saints @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

5-11 · Power #25

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9-7 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -14.5

✓ NO W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 18–32 TB

✓ TB (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -14

CloseTB -14.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -14

0.5 → TB

CloseTB -14.5

0.5 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -14 · closed TB -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward TBmodel TB -10.5

model TB -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -14

CloseTB -14.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 14.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 27–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.5 against an average line of 13.8; 46.1 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Very close	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	BUF vs CAR 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14.5	31–14	W	O43
Loose	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13	27–24	L	O46
Loose	MIA vs LV 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-13.5	20–13	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLWLL	6-10	38%	2-5	5-7
TB LWWLW	10-6	63%	5-3	5-3

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UUUUU	7-9	44%	5-11
TB OUOOO	11-5	69%	9-7

Went over in Q4. Of 141 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
TB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NO 28–23 TB NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 @ New Orleans Saints 27	TB -3.5	TB W
Dec 31 2023	New Orleans Saints 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	NO W
Oct 1 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ New Orleans Saints 9	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.5 →−3.1▼ 3.6#25

TB+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

TB better ▶

#23

Defense

TB better ▶

#19

−0.1 #16

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.3 #20

61 plays #23

Pace

TB faster ▶

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #24	22.6 #17	TB
Yards / play	5.27 #17	5.46 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #25	+0.02 #18	TB
Success rate	41% #23	45% #21	Even

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #4	23.4 #19	TB
Yards / play	6.21 #4	5.77 #27	TB
EPA / play	+0.13 #5	+0.04 #25	TB
Success rate	49% #3	45% #22	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.1 #18	7.8 #11	11.9 #15	2.4 #30	5.6 #24	8.0 #31
TB allowed	4.3 #13	9.6 #31	13.9 #29	3.9 #6	4.4 #2	8.3 #2

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.2 #1	8.2 #7	15.4 #2	5.5 #10	8.6 #2	14.1 #5
NO allowed	3.8 #8	7.2 #17	10.9 #14	4.9 #14	7.4 #25	12.3 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.