Panthers @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff76°F12 mphgusts 27Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

4-11 · Power #32

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8-7 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -9.5

✓ TB W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 19–28 TB

✓ TB (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -7.5

CloseTB -9.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -7.5

2 → TB

CloseTB -9.5

2 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -7.5 · closed TB -9.5 · moved 2 toward TBmodel TB -13

model TB -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -7.5

CloseTB -9.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 9.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 48–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 9.5; 46.3 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Loose	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Loose	TEN vs HOU 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-10	13–22	L	U45
Loose	WSH vs DAL 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10.5	26–34	L	O44.5
Loose	IND vs JAX 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-10.5	23–17	L	U48
Loose	GB vs WSH 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8.5	24–10	W	U48
Loose	IND vs NYJ 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-10	45–30	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WWWLW	7-8	47%	2-4	7-7
TB WLWWL	9-6	60%	4-3	4-3

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OOUOO	11-4	73%	4-11
TB UOUOO	10-5	67%	8-7

Went over in Q3. Of 100 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
TB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CAR 25–23 TB CAR leads · 48 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 1 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ Carolina Panthers 23	TB -6.5	CAR W
Jan 7 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 @ Carolina Panthers 0	TB -4.5	TB W
Dec 3 2023	Carolina Panthers 18 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21	TB -3.5	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.5 →−6.9▼ 4.4#32

TB+0.1 →+2.2▲ 2.1#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CAR

Longer bar = better

#25

Offense

TB better ▶

#31

Defense

TB better ▶

#22

−0.4 #25

Turnovers

TB better ▶

−0.3 #20

59 plays #31

Pace

TB faster ▶

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #26	23.5 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.03 #26	5.56 #20	TB
EPA / play	−0.08 #26	+0.02 #21	TB
Success rate	41% #20	45% #26	CAR

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #5	29.9 #32	TB
Yards / play	6.12 #6	5.77 #28	TB
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.13 #31	TB
Success rate	49% #4	49% #32	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.4 #22	6.5 #20	9.9 #23	4.1 #23	4.3 #31	8.4 #31
TB allowed	4.1 #12	9.8 #31	13.9 #30	4.1 #9	4.7 #3	8.8 #4

TB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.0 #2	7.6 #12	14.6 #5	4.9 #13	8.7 #2	13.7 #6
CAR allowed	5.6 #30	11.7 #32	17.3 #32	5.3 #21	7.1 #22	12.4 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.