Packers @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2024)

Sun, Jan 12, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff32°F4 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

11-6 · Power #5

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

14-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

✓ PHI W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 21–26 PHI

✓ PHI (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -3.5

2 → PHI

ClosePHI -5.5

2 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -3.5 · closed PHI -5.5 · moved 2 toward PHImodel PHI -1

model PHI -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 52% (73 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -3.5

ClosePHI -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 5.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 22–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 4.9; 50.4 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	BUF vs SF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WWWLL	9-8	53%	4-3	3-2
PHI LWLWW	11-6	65%	4-4	8-6

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OUUOO	9-8	53%	11-6
PHI UUOOU	7-10	41%	14-3

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
PHI	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 7–11 PHI PHI leads · 18 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2024	Green Bay Packers 29 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34	PHI -1.5	PHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+4.6▲ 4.1#5

PHI−0.1 →+5.3▲ 5.4#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

Even

Defense

PHI better ▶

+0.7 #4

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #5

60 plays #25

Pace

PHI faster ▶

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	GB off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #8	17.8 #1	PHI
Yards / play	6.14 #5	4.74 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.10 #2	PHI
Success rate	45% #14	39% #2	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #7	19.9 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #11	5.16 #5	GB
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	−0.07 #5	Even
Success rate	45% #13	45% #20	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.4 #4	7.3 #14	13.6 #6	5.8 #8	7.6 #8	13.4 #8
PHI allowed	4.5 #19	4.4 #1	8.9 #5	3.8 #4	5.2 #9	8.9 #6

PHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	3.6 #22	8.8 #3	12.4 #12	6.2 #7	8.6 #2	14.8 #4
GB allowed	2.4 #1	8.6 #28	11.1 #16	5.0 #19	3.8 #1	8.8 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.