Commanders @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Divisional Playoffs, 2024)

Sat, Jan 18, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTNFC Divisional Playoffs · at Detroit Lions

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Washington Commanders

13-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Detroit Lions

15-2 · Power #3

final

Closing spread

DET -8.5

✓ WSH W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 23–31 DET

✗ DET (78%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -8.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -8.5

no move

CloseDET -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -8.5 · unchangedmodel DET -7.5

model DET -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 48% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -8.5

CloseDET -8.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as an 8.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 45–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 7.7; 53.4 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5
Loose	KC vs JAX 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	27–20	L	U52.5
Loose	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar team ratings & spread	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Loose	DAL vs GB 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-7	32–48	L	O52
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-7	24–27	L	U54.5
Loose	DET vs TB 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-7.5	16–20	L	U51.5
Loose	SF vs DET 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings	-7.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Loose	BAL vs DEN 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-8.5	41–10	W	O46.5
Loose	KC vs JAX 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-9.5	27–17	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWWLW	12-6	67%	5-4	5-2
DET LLWWW	12-5	71%	5-4	11-5

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UOOUU	11-7	61%	13-5
DET OOOOU	9-8	53%	15-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
DET	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 6–9 DET DET leads · 15 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →+1.4▲ 4.5#10

DET+1.6 →+6.2▲ 4.6#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

WSH

Longer bar = better

DET

Offense

DET better ▶

#16

Defense

DET better ▶

#12

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.5 #7

65 plays #4

Pace

Even

66 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #5	20.1 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #10	5.73 #27	WSH
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	−0.06 #6	Even
Success rate	48% #4	42% #7	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #1	22.8 #18	DET
Yards / play	6.23 #3	5.44 #18	DET
EPA / play	+0.17 #3	+0.02 #15	DET
Success rate	50% #1	44% #13	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	6.1 #2	7.7 #11	13.8 #5	5.4 #10	8.7 #1	14.1 #6
DET allowed	4.5 #19	5.5 #8	10.0 #9	5.2 #22	4.9 #4	10.1 #11

DET scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.8 #13	13.1 #1	17.8 #1	8.9 #1	6.1 #21	15.0 #2
WSH allowed	3.9 #10	4.8 #2	8.7 #4	5.0 #18	9.2 #30	14.2 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.