Lions @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Mon, Dec 30, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 17 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff54°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

13-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

6-9 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

DET -3.5

✓ DET W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–24 SF

✓ DET (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3.5

no move

CloseDET -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3.5 · unchangedmodel DET -3.5 matches the line

model DET -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 59% (90 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3.5-point road favorite at SF, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 40–34; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 3.5; 57.7 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5
Very close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	BUF @ LAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	42–44	L	O50.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WLLLW	10-5	67%	6-1	9-5
SF LLWLL	5-10	33%	4-4	0-2

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; SF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UUOOO	8-7	53%	13-2
SF OOOUO	9-6	60%	6-9

Went over in Q3. Of 51 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
SF	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 2–10 SF SF leads · 12 games since 2001 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 28 2023	Detroit Lions 31 @ San Francisco 49ers 34	SF -7.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+5.9▲ 4.3#1

SF+3.2 →+2.4▼ 0.8#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DET

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ DET better

#11

Defense

Even

#14

+0.6 #8

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.3 #22

66 plays #3

Pace

◀ DET faster

60 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #1	23.3 #20	DET
Yards / play	6.23 #2	5.08 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.17 #3	0.00 #14	DET
Success rate	50% #2	44% #18	DET

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #14	19.9 #7	DET
Yards / play	6.14 #5	5.69 #26	SF
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.07 #4	DET
Success rate	45% #14	41% #7	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.5 #14	14.1 #1	18.7 #1	8.5 #2	5.3 #28	13.8 #7
SF allowed	2.7 #3	6.0 #10	8.7 #3	5.6 #24	9.0 #29	14.6 #30

SF scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.1 #11	6.4 #21	11.5 #17	5.1 #13	5.5 #27	10.6 #17
DET allowed	4.6 #19	4.9 #3	9.5 #8	5.2 #21	5.2 #10	10.4 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.