Bengals @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Mon, Dec 9, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

4-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

5-7 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

✓ CIN W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 29–24 DAL

✓ CIN (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -4.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -5.5

1 → DAL

CloseCIN -4.5

1 pt toward Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -5.5 · closed CIN -4.5 · moved 1 toward DALmodel CIN -2.5

model CIN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 53% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -4.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 4.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 27–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 3.6; 43.5 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Close	HOU @ JAX 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Loose	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	MIA @ DET 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	31–27	W	O52
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	SEA @ ARI 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	21–20	L	U47.5
Loose	GB @ DET 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-4	9–15	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWWLL	6-6	50%	5-1	4-4
DAL LLLWW	4-8	33%	1-5	3-6

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOOO	9-3	75%	4-8
DAL UUOOO	8-4	67%	5-7

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 45% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
DAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 2–6 DAL DAL leads · 8 games since 2000 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−0.6▼ 0.4#18

DAL+2.5 →−1.6▼ 4.1#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CIN

Longer bar = better

DAL

#10

Offense

◀ CIN better

#26

#29

Defense

Even

#27

−0.1 #15

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.6 #26

62 plays #19

Pace

DAL faster ▶

65 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #6	28.3 #30	CIN
Yards / play	5.77 #11	5.79 #28	CIN
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	+0.09 #30	CIN
Success rate	45% #13	44% #20	CIN

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #21	28.3 #31	DAL
Yards / play	4.94 #26	5.66 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #31	+0.09 #29	Even
Success rate	39% #27	47% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.8 #6	6.7 #18	12.4 #11	8.3 #2	7.3 #10	15.5 #3
DAL allowed	7.1 #32	6.4 #15	13.5 #29	7.6 #32	7.2 #22	14.8 #28

DAL scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	2.9 #26	7.1 #14	10.0 #21	3.6 #25	7.1 #12	10.7 #17
CIN allowed	3.2 #6	9.6 #30	12.8 #25	5.8 #26	9.6 #29	15.3 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.