Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game
Closing spread
NO -3.5
✓ NO W
Total
41.5
▲ Over · 57 pts
Model before kickoff
CAR 21–25 NO
✓ NO (64%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNO -4.5
CloseNO -3.5
Total40.5 → 41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNO -4.5
1 → CAR
CloseNO -3.5
1 pt toward Carolina Panthers
Total
Open40.5
▲ 1
Close41.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NO -4.5 · closed NO -3.5 · moved 1 toward CARmodel NO -7
model NO -7
Opened 40.5 · closed 41.5 · moved 1 upmodel 45.5
model 45.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (66 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNO -4.5
CloseNO -3.5
Total40.5 → 41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
NO as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: NO won 47–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 3.3; 42.5 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  DAL vs  WSH2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 25–10 | W | U41 |
| Loose |  PIT vs  CIN2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 10–24 | L | U42 |
| Loose |  TB vs  CAR2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 30–24 | W | O40.5 |
| Loose | CAR vs  NYJ2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 19–14 | W | U44.5 |
| Loose |  LV vs  MIA2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 31–28 | L | O44.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 48–17 | W | O41.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 17–24 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose | WSH vs  JAX2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 28–22 | W | O43 |
| Loose |  TEN vs MIA2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 34–3 | W | U41 |
| Loose | NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 7–10 | L | U41.5 |
ATL
LARHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Carolina Panthers ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Carolina Panthers
1 pt (NO -4.5 → NO -3.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Carolina Panthers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% |
| NO | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-4-1 56% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
CAR 24–31 NO
NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10 2023 | Carolina Panthers 6 @ New Orleans Saints 28 | NO -5.5 | NO W |
| Sep 18 2023 | New Orleans Saints 20 @ Carolina Panthers 17 | — | — |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NO +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
CAR1st game
NO1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
BAL @ 
KC
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ARI @ 
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CHI
NE @ 
HOU @ 
IND
MIN @ 
NYG