Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New York Giants
Closing spread
NYG -2.5
✓ MIN W
Total
40.5
▼ Under · 34 pts
Model before kickoff
MIN 21–23 NYG
✗ NYG (57%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIN -1
CloseNYG -2.5
Total41.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIN -1
3.5 → NYG
CloseNYG -2.5
3.5 pts toward New York Giants
Total
Open41.5
▼ 1
Close40.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIN -1 · closed NYG -2.5 · moved 3.5 toward NYGmodel MIN -3.5
model MIN -3.5
Opened 41.5 · closed 40.5 · moved 1 downmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 58% (65 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIN -1
CloseNYG -2.5
Total41.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
NYG as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: MIN won 28–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 40.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 58%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 2.1; 37.7 points a game (usually 43.7). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  CAR vs  CLE2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2 | 24–26 | L | O42 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 20–3 | W | U39.5 |
| Loose | NYG vs  DAL2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-1.5 | 16–23 | L | O38.5 |
| Loose |  MIA vs  IND2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 17–27 | L | O42 |
| Loose |  PIT vs CLE2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 28–14 | W | O39.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–20 | L | U43 |
| Loose | CLE vs  DEN2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2 | 17–14 | W | U40.5 |
| Loose | PIT vs  NO2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings |
-1 | 20–10 | W | U39.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 19–17 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-1.5 | 18–23 | L | U42.5 |
GB
LAR
LVHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New York Giants ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New York Giants
3.5 pts (MIN -1 → NYG -2.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Minnesota Vikings have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 48% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN | 4-6 40% | 4-4-2 50% | 6-4 60% |
| NYG | 4-6 40% | 6-3-1 67% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
MIN 12–7 NYG
MIN leads · 19 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NYG +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
67° · 10 mph
gusts 25 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
MIN1st game
NYG1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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