Packers @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff87°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

1-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-3 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

GB -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 23–20 TB

✓ GB (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -1.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total47.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2
TB LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
TB OOU	2-1	67%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	7-3 70%
TB	2-8 20%	0-10 0%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 9–10 TB TB leads · 19 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 @ Green Bay Packers 20	GB -4	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.9 →−1.2▼ 2.1#21

TB−0.2 →−1.7▼ 1.5#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

◀ GB better

#27

#21

Defense

TB better ▶

#11

−0.7 #24

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−1.7 #29

60 plays #17

Pace

◀ GB faster

59 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	GB off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #24	26.3 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.26 #15	4.90 #9	TB
EPA / play	−0.12 #27	−0.08 #7	TB
Success rate	37% #29	38% #5	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	TB off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #19	30.3 #30	TB
Yards / play	4.71 #28	5.14 #12	GB
EPA / play	−0.19 #32	+0.07 #22	GB
Success rate	37% #30	46% #21	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.3 #11	5.7 #18	11.0 #14	1.0 #31	5.7 #20	6.7 #27
TB allowed	9.0 #32	6.7 #14	15.7 #32	4.3 #12	6.3 #16	10.7 #14

TB scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	5.3 #11	4.3 #24	9.7 #19	6.7 #10	4.3 #27	11.0 #17
GB allowed	3.3 #12	8.0 #21	11.3 #16	7.0 #25	12.0 #32	19.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.