Vikings @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff84°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

2-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-2 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

TB -1.5

✓ MIN W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 21–22 TB

✗ TB (56%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -1.5

CloseTB -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -1.5

no move

CloseTB -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -1.5 · unchangedmodel TB -3.5

model TB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 52% (117 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -1.5

CloseTB -1.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 1.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 23–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 2.8; 44.7 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	HOU vs CIN 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	6–20	L	U45.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	NE vs CAR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	42–13	W	O42.5
Close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	NE vs PIT 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	20–3	W	U41.5
Close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Close	ATL vs NO 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	26–24	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
TB LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OU	1-1	50%	2-0
TB OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
TB	2-8 20%	0-10 0%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIN 6–10 TB TB leads · 16 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 @ Minnesota Vikings 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+0.7▲ 0.6#12

TB−0.2 →−1.1▼ 0.9#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MIN

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

TB better ▶

#21

Defense

◀ MIN better

#19

+1.5 #3

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

−2.0 #31

56 plays #26

Pace

Even

57 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	MIN off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #13	28.0 #24	MIN
Yards / play	4.33 #31	5.24 #15	TB
EPA / play	−0.05 #21	0.00 #16	TB
Success rate	35% #32	45% #20	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	TB off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #16	12.5 #4	MIN
Yards / play	5.22 #16	5.23 #14	Even
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	−0.15 #7	MIN
Success rate	42% #21	35% #2	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 teams

MIN scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	3.0	5.0	8.0	3.5	12.5	16.0
TB allowed	8.5	6.5	15.0	6.5	6.5	13.0

TB scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	4.5	5.0	9.5	8.5	5.0	13.5
MIN allowed	6.0	5.0	11.0	1.5	0.0	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.