Cardinals @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 3 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

1-1 · Power #28

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

2-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -7.5

✓ ARI W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 19–27 SF

✓ SF (76%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -11.5

CloseSF -7.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -11.5

4 → ARI

CloseSF -7.5

4 pts toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -11.5 · closed SF -7.5 · moved 4 toward ARImodel SF -9.5

model SF -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 50% (116 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -11.5

CloseSF -7.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like SF as a 7.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SF won 36–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 66 points went over 48.5, as in 2 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 60%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 7; 66.5 points a game (usually 47). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BUF vs JAX 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	47–10	W	O46.5
Loose	DAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-9.5	41–35	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1
SF WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UU	0-2	0%	1-1
SF UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 160 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
SF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

ARI 22–29 SF SF leads · 51 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2025	San Francisco 49ers 41 @ Arizona Cardinals 22	SF -3.5	SF W
Sep 21 2025	Arizona Cardinals 15 @ San Francisco 49ers 16	SF -1.5	ARI W
Jan 5 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Arizona Cardinals 47	ARI -4.5	ARI W
Oct 6 2024	Arizona Cardinals 24 @ San Francisco 49ers 23	SF -7.5	ARI W
Dec 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 45 @ Arizona Cardinals 29	SF -12	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.3 →−1.7▼ 0.4#26

SF+0.9 →+3.4▲ 2.5#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ARI

Longer bar = better

#25

Offense

SF better ▶

#16

Defense

SF better ▶

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

+0.5 #14

60 plays #19

Pace

◀ ARI faster

57 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	ARI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #26	10.0 #3	SF
Yards / play	4.57 #30	5.08 #10	SF
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.13 #8	SF
Success rate	42% #22	42% #11	SF

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #5	22.5 #14	SF
Yards / play	6.73 #3	5.50 #21	SF
EPA / play	+0.30 #2	−0.03 #12	SF
Success rate	57% #1	43% #17	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 teams

ARI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	3.5	6.5	10.0	1.5	5.0	6.5
SF allowed	0.0	6.5	6.5	0.0	3.5	3.5

SF scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.0	7.0	12.0	14.0	5.0	19.0
ARI allowed	7.0	0.0	7.0	8.5	7.0	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.