Cardinals @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 3 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff80°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-0 · Power #25

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

2-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -1.5

✓ ARI W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 22–24 SF

✓ SF (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -1.5

CloseSF -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -1.5

3 → SF

CloseSF -1.5

3 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -1.5 · closed SF -1.5 · moved 3 toward SFmodel SF -5

model SF -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 51% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -1.5

CloseSF -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 1.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SF won 16–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.8 against an average line of 2.6; 42.8 points a game (usually 42.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH vs CHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	18–15	W	U46.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Loose	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Loose	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Loose	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & spread	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Loose	TB vs GB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	12–14	L	U42
Loose	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	17–40	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WL	1-1	50%	1-0	—
SF WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UO	1-1	50%	2-0
SF UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 51% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SF	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

ARI 22–29 SF SF leads · 51 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Arizona Cardinals 47	ARI -4.5	ARI W
Oct 6 2024	Arizona Cardinals 24 @ San Francisco 49ers 23	SF -7.5	ARI W
Dec 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 45 @ Arizona Cardinals 29	SF -12	SF W
Oct 1 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 35	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI+0.1 →0.0▼ 0.1#16

SF+0.9 →+2.3▲ 1.4#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ARI

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

SF better ▶

+0.5 #11

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

0.0 #18

55 plays #27

Pace

SF faster ▶

70 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	ARI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #11	17.0 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.22 #15	4.59 #6	SF
EPA / play	+0.08 #14	−0.16 #1	SF
Success rate	43% #21	45% #22	Even

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #19	17.5 #10	ARI
Yards / play	5.20 #16	4.57 #5	ARI
EPA / play	+0.08 #12	−0.03 #12	Even
Success rate	49% #4	45% #23	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 24 teams

ARI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	6.5	12.0	18.5	5.0	0.0	5.0
SF allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

SF scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.5	5.0	11.5	1.5	8.5	10.0
ARI allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	3.0	8.0	11.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.