Colts @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff86°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

2-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

0-2 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

IND -5.5

✓ IND W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 26–21 TEN

✓ IND (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3.5

CloseIND -5.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -3.5

2 → IND

CloseIND -5.5

2 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -3.5 · closed IND -5.5 · moved 2 toward INDmodel IND -4

model IND -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 55% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -3.5

CloseIND -5.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 5.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 6; 42.2 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAR @ TEN 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	33–19	W	O40.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–20	W	O41.5
Close	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar total & spread	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Loose	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Loose	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Loose	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
TEN WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UO	1-1	50%	2-0
TEN UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
TEN	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

IND 34–16 TEN IND leads · 50 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2024	Tennessee Titans 30 @ Indianapolis Colts 38	IND -4.5	IND W
Oct 13 2024	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Tennessee Titans 17	TEN -2.5	IND W
Dec 3 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Tennessee Titans 28	IND -1	IND W
Oct 8 2023	Tennessee Titans 16 @ Indianapolis Colts 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.8 →+1.4▲ 2.2#10

TEN−1.8 →−3.7▼ 1.9#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

IND

Longer bar = better

TEN

Offense

◀ IND better

#31

#16

Defense

◀ IND better

#22

+2.0 #1

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #4

69 plays #6

Pace

◀ IND faster

60 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #4	26.5 #24	IND
Yards / play	6.50 #2	5.82 #25	IND
EPA / play	+0.21 #3	+0.07 #23	IND
Success rate	51% #1	44% #17	IND

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	TEN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #30	18.0 #11	IND
Yards / play	3.24 #32	5.35 #20	IND
EPA / play	−0.26 #31	−0.02 #14	IND
Success rate	32% #32	45% #19	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

IND scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.5	15.5	20.0	3.0	8.0	11.0
TEN allowed	5.0	5.0	10.0	6.5	10.0	16.5

TEN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	1.5	9.5	11.0	3.0	1.5	4.5
IND allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	3.5	4.0	7.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.