Broncos @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sun, Sep 21, 2025, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Weather at kickoff74°F1 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

1-1 · Power #8

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

2-0 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

✓ LAC W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 21–23 LAC

✓ LAC (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

no move

CloseLAC -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · unchangedmodel LAC -2.5 matches the line

model LAC -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (152 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -2.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 23–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 3.2; 49 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Close	WSH vs PIT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.5	27–28	L	O45.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—
LAC WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UO	1-1	50%	1-1
LAC OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 49% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

DEN 33–23 LAC DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 19 2024	Denver Broncos 27 @ Los Angeles Chargers 34	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Oct 13 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 23 @ Denver Broncos 16	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 31 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 9 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	DEN W
Dec 10 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Los Angeles Chargers 7	LAC -3	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+0.6▲ 0.2#14

LAC+0.5 →+1.8▲ 1.3#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

DEN

Longer bar = better

LAC

#17

Offense

LAC better ▶

Defense

LAC better ▶

−1.5 #30

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+1.0 #6

63 plays #15

Pace

◀ DEN faster

59 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #10	15.0 #3	LAC
Yards / play	5.13 #19	4.59 #7	LAC
EPA / play	0.00 #18	−0.11 #6	LAC
Success rate	42% #22	38% #3	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #12	20.5 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.08 #7	4.97 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #6	−0.10 #7	Even
Success rate	51% #2	38% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 teams

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.0	10.5	15.5	5.0	3.5	8.5
LAC allowed	1.5	4.5	6.0	3.0	6.0	9.0

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	8.5	6.5	15.0	5.0	3.5	8.5
DEN allowed	4.5	10.0	14.5	3.0	3.0	6.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.