Dolphins @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Thu, Sep 18, 2025, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

0-2 · Power #28

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

2-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -11.5

✓ MIA W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 19–30 BUF

✓ BUF (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -10.5

CloseBUF -11.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -10.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -11.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -10.5 · closed BUF -11.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -10.5

model BUF -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -10.5

CloseBUF -11.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like BUF as an 11.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BUF won 31–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 6 similar games. 52 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 6.

Favorite won

5 of 683%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 683%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 59%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 25.7 against an average line of 11.2; 53.3 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Loose	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Loose	WSH vs DAL 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-10.5	26–34	L	O44.5
Loose	TB vs CAR 2024 · Week 17 · loose	-9.5	48–14	W	O47.5
Loose	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · loose	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Loose	KC vs DEN 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	19–8	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
BUF WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UO	1-1	50%	0-2
BUF OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

MIA 20–35 BUF BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 3 2024	Miami Dolphins 27 @ Buffalo Bills 30	BUF -6.5	MIA W
Sep 12 2024	Buffalo Bills 31 @ Miami Dolphins 10	MIA -2.5	BUF W
Jan 7 2023	Buffalo Bills 21 @ Miami Dolphins 14	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Oct 1 2023	Miami Dolphins 20 @ Buffalo Bills 48	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA0.0 →−2.3▼ 2.3#25

BUF+2.6 →+4.2▲ 1.6#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MIA

Longer bar = better

BUF

#17

Offense

BUF better ▶

#30

Defense

BUF better ▶

#20

−2.0 #32

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.0 #7

49 plays #31

Pace

BUF faster ▶

75 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #25	25.0 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #9	6.04 #26	MIA
EPA / play	−0.03 #22	+0.06 #21	Even
Success rate	45% #12	42% #12	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #2	33.0 #31	BUF
Yards / play	6.04 #7	6.01 #25	BUF
EPA / play	+0.22 #2	+0.30 #32	BUF
Success rate	48% #6	52% #32	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 0 teams

MIA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	0.0	7.0	7.0	3.0	7.5	10.5
BUF allowed	1.5	10.0	11.5	7.0	6.5	13.5

BUF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	8.5	8.0	16.5	4.5	14.5	19.0
MIA allowed	7.5	10.0	17.5	5.5	10.0	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.