Saints @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sun, Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

0-3 · Power #23

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

3-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -14.5

✓ NO W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 17–32 BUF

✓ BUF (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -14.5

CloseBUF -14.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -14.5

no move

CloseBUF -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -14.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -14.5 matches the line

model BUF -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -14.5

CloseBUF -14.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 14.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 31–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 37%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 13.3; 47.7 points a game (usually 44). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs NE 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-14.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Very close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Close	GB vs NO 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	34–0	W	U43.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & season form	-11.5	31–21	L	O50.5
Loose	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & total	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings	-13	45–10	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-3
BUF WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOO	2-1	67%	0-3
BUF OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 99 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
BUF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 5–2 BUF NO leads · 7 games since 2001 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−3.5▼ 1.9#30

BUF+2.6 →+4.4▲ 1.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

BUF

#25

Offense

BUF better ▶

#21

Defense

Even

#19

0.0 #17

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.0 #4

69 plays #1

Pace

Even

69 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NO off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #29	23.7 #20	BUF
Yards / play	4.40 #28	5.53 #21	BUF
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	+0.05 #23	Even
Success rate	43% #20	42% #11	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #4	30.0 #25	BUF
Yards / play	6.12 #4	5.14 #15	BUF
EPA / play	+0.23 #3	+0.07 #25	BUF
Success rate	50% #4	45% #20	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	0.0 #31	7.7 #11	7.7 #26	2.3 #24	5.7 #23	8.0 #29
BUF allowed	3.3 #6	9.0 #23	12.3 #20	4.7 #19	6.7 #15	11.3 #20

BUF scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	8.0 #4	7.7 #11	15.7 #4	5.3 #8	13.0 #1	18.3 #3
NO allowed	10.0 #32	13.7 #32	23.7 #32	4.0 #16	2.3 #3	6.3 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.