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NFL · 2025

NFL Week 4 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 4: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
16 finalFavorites 9-7 ATS5 upsetsO/U 10-6Model Favorite 10-5Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1616 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS9-756% covered
Upsets5outright
Over / Under10-663% over
Model Favorite10-567% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up3 all 3 final
Over2 67%Under1 33%
Moved down9 all 9 final
Over6 67%Under3 33%
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20252024–2026
Any move
6–367%
94–9849%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
3–260%
43–4350%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
2–167%
21–2744%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
1–0100%
7–750%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—
1–325%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Sep 25

1
Final · Division
Seattle Seahawks
2-1 · #1
23
Arizona Cardinals
2-1 · #25
20
Spread
SEA -1.5
✓ SEA W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼1
▼ Under 43
Projected
23–22
✓ SEA won
Trend: SEA ATS ✓ Model: ARI by 3 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1

Sunday, Sep 28

13
Final · Neutral
Minnesota Vikings
2-1 · #17
21
Pittsburgh Steelers
2-1 · #19
24
Spread
MIN -2.5
✓ PIT W ATS
Total
41.5
▲ Over 45 · Q4
Projected
22–20
✗ MIN lost
Trend: MIN ATS ✗ Model: PIT by 6 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Washington Commanders
2-1 · #27
27
Atlanta Falcons
1-2 · #20
34
Spread
ATL -2.5
✓ ATL W ATS
Total
44.5 ▼2
▲ Over 61 · Q3
Projected
21–23
✓ ATL won
Trend: ATL ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: ATL by 2 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
New Orleans Saints
0-3 · #23
19
Buffalo Bills
3-0 · #4
31
Spread
BUF -14.5
✓ NO W ATS
Total
48.5
▲ Over 50 · Q4
Projected
17–32
✓ BUF won
Trend: BUF ATS ✗ Model: NO by 0 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Cleveland Browns
1-2 · #29
10
Detroit Lions
2-1 · #6
34
Spread
DET -10.5
✓ DET W ATS
Total
44.5 ▼1
▼ Under 44
Projected
18–29
✓ DET won
Trend: DET ATS ✓ Model: DET by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Carolina Panthers
1-2 · #26
13
New England Patriots
1-2 · #5
42
Spread
NE -3
✓ NE W ATS
Total
42.5 ▼2
▲ Over 55 · Q4
Projected
20–23
✓ NE won
Trend: CAR ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: NE by 0 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Los Angeles Chargers
3-0 · #15
18
New York Giants
0-3 · #22
21
Spread
LAC -5.5
✓ NYG W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼2
▼ Under 39
Projected
25–20
✗ LAC lost
Trend: LAC ATS ✗Trend: Under ✓ Model: LAC by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Philadelphia Eagles
3-0 · #9
31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3-0 · #18
25
Spread
PHI -3.5
✓ PHI W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼2
▲ Over 56 · Q3
Projected
25–22
✓ PHI won
Trend: PHI ATS ✓Trend: Under ✗ Model: TB by 4.5 ✗ Model: Over 3 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
Tennessee Titans
0-3 · #31
0
Houston Texans
0-3 · #3
26
Spread
HOU -7.5
✓ HOU W ATS
Total
39.5
▼ Under 26
Projected
17–25
✓ HOU won
Trend: HOU ATS ✓ Model: HOU by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Indianapolis Colts
3-0 · #13
20
Los Angeles Rams
2-1 · #2
27
Spread
LAR -3.5
✓ LAR W ATS
Total
49.5 ▲1
▼ Under 47
Projected
23–26
✓ LAR won
Trend: IND ATS ✗ Model: IND by 3 ✗ Model: Under 1 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Jacksonville Jaguars
2-1 · #7
26
San Francisco 49ers
3-0 · #10
21
Spread
SF -3.5
✓ JAX W ATS
Total
46.5 ▲1
▲ Over 47 · Q4
Projected
21–24
✗ SF lost
Trend: JAX ATS ✓ Model: JAX by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 1.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Baltimore Ravens
1-2 · #14
20
Kansas City Chiefs
1-2 · #12
37
Spread
BAL -2.5
✓ KC W ATS
Total
49.5 ▲1
▲ Over 57 · Q4
Projected
26–23
✗ BAL lost
Model: KC by 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Chicago Bears
1-2 · #16
25
Las Vegas Raiders
1-2 · #30
24
Spread
LV -2.5
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼1
▲ Over 49 · Q4
Projected
22–24
✗ LV lost
Trend: LV ATS ✗ Model: CHI by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Green Bay Packers
2-1 · #11
40
Dallas Cowboys
1-2 · #21
40
Spread
GB -6.5
✓ DAL W ATS
Total
46.5 ▼2
▲ Over 80 · Q4
Projected
27–20
 
Trend: Under ✗ Model: DAL by 2.5 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q2

Monday, Sep 29

2
Final · Division
New York Jets
0-3 · #32
21
Miami Dolphins
0-3 · #28
27
Spread
MIA -2.5
✓ MIA W ATS
Total
43.5 ▼1
▲ Over 48 · Q4
Projected
21–24
✓ MIA won
Model: MIA by 0 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Cincinnati Bengals
2-1 · #24
3
Denver Broncos
1-2 · #8
28
Spread
DEN -7.5
✓ DEN W ATS
Total
44.5
▼ Under 31
Projected
20–27
✓ DEN won
Model: CIN by 6 ✗ Model: Over 3 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total